Well, this year is harder than most, which usually means that it's more interesting than most. I'd like to believe that, but it can also mean that it was a relatively weak Oscar year. I wouldn't necessarily buy that either, since some great movies came out this year. It's just that a bunch of them didn't get Oscar love. Of the ones that did, here are my best guesses for who'll go all the way.

And hey, if the crop of movies doesn't seem to be as much fun this year, just remember Chris Rock will be there to make sweeping generalizations (as it turns out, I'm the one straight black guy who watches these things), the nominees will either be in the audience, onstage, or maybe hanging from the ceiling, and the stage goes wicked far into the crowd. And LCD floors! (You'll see what I mean)

Apparently, the theme this year is "Oscars, you so crazy!"

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke
Guard Dog
Lorenzo
Ryan

Will Win: Guard Dog
Should Win: Guard Dog

Guard Dog is directed by Bill Plympton, who's kind of a sacred cow in the animation world. Now, whether that counts for anything in the Oscar world is beyond me, especially since this is only his second nom in 20 year plus career. But I think he's due. (Yeah, cos' that argument always works).

He gets the should because he really is that awesome.

Of course, like most of you, I've seen none of these films.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Everything in this Country Must
Little Terrorist
7:35 in the Morning
Two Cars, One Night
Wasp

Will Win: Little Terrorist
Should Win: 7:35 in the Morning

Again, haven't seen any of these. Little Terrorist is about a Pakistani kid who accidentally crosses into India (across a minefield no less) and befriends a Hindu teacher. It's hard to get more PC than that.

Although not as politically relevant (simply going on premise) 7:35 boasts, for me, the more intriguing pitch. A woman walks into a cafe and everyone is staring at their plates in silence. Creepy, no?

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Autism Is a World
The Children of Leningradsky
Hardwood
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion

Will Win: Sister Rose's Passion
Should Win: Mighty Times: The Children's March

Murderer's Row (the name I give to the Short Film and Doc Awards) continues (and, in this case, concludes) with Doc Short Subject. I feel like the feature docs are getting easier to predict, so they don't scare me as much. Besides, I've actually seen (or at least heard of) some of them this time. But back to the short docs.

Sister Rose's Passion is about a nun fighting anti-Semitism in the church and, in particular, the notion that the Jews were responsible for killing Jesus. In a year where many stayed away from The Passion for that very association, this is too tempting a vote.

Mighty Times is actually part of a series that appears to be covering the civil rights movement. Another installment about Rosa Parks was nominated a few years back. Sounds like an interesting project, and I'd like to see it get some love.