The Santana Special
Written by John MacKenzie
Published February 15, 2005

The following is a combination of two entries which I originally posted on my blog last night/early this morning.


Part 1

Johan Santana, the secondbest pitcher (after Randy Johnson) in baseball last season, has apparently signed a four-year deal with the Twins. This has to be a good deal for Minnesota. I don't think it's possible for a wallet-conscious team like the Twins to overpay for a pitcher of Santana's youth and ability, but they must have made it worth his while to pass on the upcoming free agency he was due for at the end of 2006.

If Santana keeps pitching like he has for the last year-and-a-half — and there's no reason why he shouldn't, unless he somehow loses control of the changeup that vaulted him into the elite rank of pitchers — he'll command major money when free agency finally rolls around for him in 2009.

His ERA this season probably won't be as low as the 2.61 he posted last year, but he should bring it in somewhere between 3.00 and 3.15 which is pretty sweet in these offence-crazy days.

Don't miss a chance to catch a game that this guy pitches in. In two years time, when people talk about pitchers, there'll be Johan Santana and Mark Prior in one breath and then all the rest.


Part 2

Minnesota Twins management and fans must be in the throes of off-season orgasm right about now. The numbers on the Santana deal are being reported as 4 years, $40 million. That's $10 million a year. For comparison, here's what some merely mortal pitchers have signed for this winter:

Pitcher Age Team Years Total $ $ Per Year
Carl Pavano, SP 29 NY Yankees 4 $39,950,000 $9,987,500
Brad Radke, SP 32 Minnesota 2 18,000,000 9,000,000
Derek Lowe, SP 31 Los Angeles 4 36,000,000 9,000,000
Eric Milton, SP 29 Cincinnati 3 25,500,000 8,500,000
Matt Clement, SP 30 Boston 3 25,500,000 8,500,000
Russ Ortiz, SP 30 Arizona 4 33,000,000 8,250,000
Odalis Perez, SP 27 Los Angeles 3 24,000,000 8,000,000
Kris Benson, SP 30 NY Mets 3 22,500,000 7,500,000
Kevin Millwood, SP 30 Cleveland 1 7,000,000 7,000,000
Jaret Wright, SP 29 NY Yankees 3 21,000,000 7,000,000
Jon Lieber, SP 34 Philadelphia 3 21,000,000 7,000,000
Paul Wilson, SP 31 Cincinnati 2 8,200,000 4,100,000
Orlando Hernandez, SP 35 Chicago Sox 2 8,000,000 4,000,000
Cory Lidle, SP 32 Philadelphia 2 6,300,000 3,150,000

That's an average of $7,213,392.86 per year for the bunch, even with the lower salaries for Wilson, Orlando Hernandez, and Lidle. An average of less than three million dollars per year less than Santana signed for. And none of those guys are anywhere near the pitcher that Santana is. The best deals in the bunch are Radke, Clement, Odalis Perez, and Hernandez.

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The Santana Special
Published: February 15, 2005
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Section: Sports
Writer: John MacKenzie
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Comments

#1 — February 15, 2005 @ 13:07PM — Eric Olsen

you are nothing if not eclectic John! Thi looks like a very good deal for the Twinkies but the Millwood deal with the Indians is even better (although only one year) if he is close to healthy. In fact the Juan Gonzalez deal (about $400K plus incentives) is THE deal of the year, period, if he even plays 100 games, hits 25 home runs, and gets 80 RBIs, all of which are pretty well guaranteed IF he can get in the time without breaking down

BTW, your font style seems to bleeding over past the post.

Thanks!

#2 — February 15, 2005 @ 14:12PM — John MacKenzie [URL]

I don't agree with you about Millwood, except that it's good that it's a one-year deal, Eric. His two best looking seasons, 1999 and 2002, were under the fine coaching eye of Leo Mazzone. And those two seasons look better in Millwood's ERA line than they actually were. The good things about those seasons is that he showed the best K/9 and K/BB ratios of his career.

Another thing that looks good but isn't is that Millwood gave up many, many less hits in those two seasons than he has in other years. It looks good, and it helps the ERA; problem is, it's not a sustainable ability. As Voros McCracken has shown with his DIPs system, pitchers have little-to-no control over whether or not a batted ball in play goes for a hit.

So Millwood's two best seasons were largely the result of good luck alloyed with the pitching sagacity of Leo Mazzone. I don't see him being likely to recreate that magic in Cleveland.

When we throw out the two seasons which were aberrations, we're left with the career line of a league-average, inning eating pitcher who's probably worth about what Paul Wilson is being (over)paid.

If Juan Gone reaches the numbers you suggest, he will be a steal for the Indians. Big if, though, given his track record for injury.

I tried to fix the font style. Sorry about that.

#3 — February 15, 2005 @ 14:17PM — Eric Olsen

fixed, looks fine - if he has a career average year, it will be a very good deal for the Indians

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