This is easily the hardest year for me to pick in the past, um, four or five years that I've been doing this. I remember when I could just say "Lord of the Rings" over and over again and be right. No such luck this time. And I couldn't be happier. This is much more interesting. And I'll probably be much more wrong.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Aviator's gonna get a lot of noms. Plus, Hollywood can't resist a modern actress paying tribute to a legend.

Laura Linney - Kinsey
A raved-about performance. Her first Supporting nom.

Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Golden Globes notwithstanding, she's still the most likely winner.

Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
Every list has its surprise, and I think the SAG noms and the Oscars will share this one.

Natalie Portman - Closer
Her Golden Globes win couldn't have possibly influenced the nomination ballots, since they went in the night before and she wasn't selected for a SAG, but I'm playing it safe.

Best Supporting Actor

Thomas Hayden Church - Sideways
And he'll win, too.

Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Four nominated black actors for the price of three. Yes, the Academy's that shortsighted.

Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
It would be a sweet win, but I think Thomas has the edge.

Freddie Highmore - Finding Neverland
The SAG nom locked this one for me. BFCA didn't hurt. Fills the "cute kid" Haley-Anna-Kiesha slot.

Clive Owen - Closer
This isn't just about his GG win. He's gotten a lot of critical love beyond that. He also looks good in a tux.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Mean Girls - Tina Fey
It seemed like a long shot, but somehow the buzz began building and ultimately the WGA recognized and now it seems like the phrase "The Oscar nominated Mean Girls" could become a reality. Personally, I like the ring of it. Oh, and she looks good in a tux.

Million Dollar Baby - Paul Haggis
Gonna compete with Sideways for second most noms. Aviator will probably take the top spot in that contest.

Finding Neverland - David Magee
The GG and BFCA are doing it. Why can't the Academy?

Sideways - Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
For the first time since Election.

The Motorcycle Diaries - Jose Rivera
This year's foreign film that couldn't get a foreign film nod (a la City of God). I'd put A Very Long Engagement in this slot, except that the WGA didn't.

Best Original Screenplay

The Aviator - John Logan
Part of the Aviator package. Comes with Aviator playing cards and a commemorative Aviator plate. It shows Howard Hughes collecting his urine.