I haven't actually seen three of these films, including Vera Drake, so you really shouldn't pay attention to me here, but between Uma and Hilary, I gotta go with Hilary (though Uma does a great job).

OPV: 46%. You more than double your chances at an Oscar by winning this one, and I think you'll see a similar showdown between Imelda and Hilary when the time comes.

Actor in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy

Jim Carrey - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Jamie Foxx - Ray
Paul Giamatti - Sideways
Kevin Kline - De-Lovely
Kevin Spacey - Beyond the Sea

Will Win: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Jamie Foxx

If Jamie weren't here, this would be a really interesting race. Giamatti would be in the lead (6 cc's and a SAG nom), but the HFP looooves Carrey (to the tune of 5 previous noms and 2 wins) and have improbably denied the two Kevins in spite of numerous noms (5 total Kline, 4 total Spacey). But we live in a world where Jamie Foxx has won 11 cc's, the BFCA and a SAG nom, not to mention the awards buzz he's been garnering since weeks before Ray even came out. It's as close to a lock as you'll get this year.

This is one of those cases where the buzz is justified. It's an amazing performance. He doesn't just convincingly portray blindness (he was, in fact, prosthetically blind, so that isn't the totally impressive part). He becomes Ray Charles. He creates a complete character. He loses Jamie Foxx altogether in a Hoffman-esque transformation. That's what it's all about.

OPV: 9%. But you could just as easily call Ray a drama (or Sideways, for that matter).

Actor in a Leading Role - Drama

Javier Bardem - The Sea Inside
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Liam Neeson - Kinsey

Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Javier Bardem

This actually IS an interesting race, since the top two contenders (Jamie and Paul) are eliminated at the gate. Javier still emerges as the frontrunner, given the HFP's penchant for powerhouse performances (Penn in Mystic River, Denzel in Hurricaine). But he doesn't have the SAG attention lavished on Cheadle, Depp, and DiCaprio. And he certainly doesn't have Depp's four previous noms and DiCaprio's three, all unconsummated. And Neeson's the only one to get critic's circle love. When all is said and done, however, I think Javier will just eke by. Goldderby likes him, too, at 2/1.

The most frustrating miss of last year for me was The Sea Inside. I really wanted to see it but it was only around for five seconds. So, based on buzz alone, I'm giving it to Javier. I don't usually do that, but you have to understand, the buzz is really, really good. If I have to limit it to stuff I've actually seen...Don and Leo are frontrunners, but I liked Don a little more.