OPV: 47%. Pretty strong, and without a real Hollywood pedigree, Church needs all the help he can get.

Actress in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy

Annette Bening - Being Julia
Ashley Judd - De-Lovely
Emmy Rossum - The Phantom of the Opera
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Rene Zellwegger - Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

Will Win: Emmy Rossum
Should Win: Kate Winslet

The oddsmakers at Goldderby.com like Bening for this one, and she's won two critic's circle awards and has a SAG nom to boot. She's also had four shots at this and lost every time. And it's her face on the Columbia pictures logo (stupid movie quizzo, that fact lost us the game, but I digress). Her next closest competitor, Winslet, has the same plaudits, minus the four noms. But I think that this time, the Press will go out of their way (and not too far, really) to award an actress for a musical performance. In the past ten years, every time they've had a chance to give this to an actress in a musical (which, admittedly, is only three times) they've done it. I think they like the idea of proving that this isn't an antiquated category. The BFCA (for Best Young Actress) probably doesn't hurt. Plus, she really does sing the hell out of her part.

Which is why it's a close call between her and Winslet for the should. I think Rossum gives an outstanding performance in a sub-par film. And there's the rub. Winslet is outstanding and her character has more to do because it's a better-written role. Far more subtlety and nuance. She doesn't sing, but she does a great job.

OPV: 18% - The Academy doesn't look too kindly on comedies. They're usually nice to musicals, but I think the chances of Rossum getting a nom are pretty slim.

Actress in a Leading Role - Drama

Scarlett Johansson - A Love Song for Bobby Long
Nicole Kidman - Birth
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Uma Thurman - Kill Bill Vol. 2

Will Win: Imelda Staunton
Should Win: Hilary Swank

Odds-wise, it again comes down to only two of these nominees. Imelda's got 8 critic's circle awards and a SAG nom. Hilary's got 7 cc's, SAG, and a BFCA. The odds should be in her favor (and are on goldderby to the tune of 7/5 against Imelda's 8/5). However, the HFP tends to be a bit more international with their love in this category and probably won't be as squeamish as the Academy might be about the subject matter (abortion) in Staunton's film. They tend to go artsier here and between Eastwood and Mike Leigh, that's an easy call.