When Marty won in 2002 he beat out a director up for his first Golden Globe. And that man's name was...Roy Cohn. No, wait, Alexander Payne. It was Alexander Payne. Well, now it's Alex's turn. And this movie was beloved by enough critics to make it happen.

And so be it. Out of the movies picked here, I think Alex did the best job, coaxing out incredible performances from his actors while creating a unique painterly homage to 70's character-driven films. Frankly, I think Michael Gondry did a better job with his thing, but, he's not nominated.

OPV: 52%. Though in this case, I think Marty's gonna grab the Oscar.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Natalie Portman - Closer
Meryl Streep - The Manchurian Candidate

Will Win: Virginia Madsen
Should Win: Virginia Madsen

The Golden Globes tend to be very predictable here. If there's a female performance generating buzz, they'll go with it. Here the prevailing wind is definitely in Madsen's favor. Cate won 4 critic's circle awards. Laura, 3. Virginia's pulled down 10, including one from the BFCA.

Again, I think justice will be served. Virginia's performance is the most nuanced and enthralling of the bunch. It's a complete person, which is hard to do in a supporting role. You might even argue that she should really be up for best actress, given the size of her role in the picture, but this is how she's nominated.

OPV: 39%. Almost doubles your odds, but in this case it might as well triple them.

Actor in a Supporting Role

David Carradine - Kill Bill Vol. 2
Thomas Hayden Church - Sideways
Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen - Closer

Will Win: Thomas Hayden Church
Should Win: (tie) David Carradine/Thomas Hayden Church

There's only one actor with more critic's circle plaudits this year than Virginia Madsen, and that's Church. The next highest in this category is Owen, with 3. Church has 14! Including the BFCA. It'll be nice to see him give his speech.

This is a tough call, though. I was really impressed with Church, but Carradine blew me away. His twenty minute (Was it really that long? It didn't feel that long.) speech in Kill Bill brings down the house. Tarantino was made to be spoken in metaphor-driven monologues but Carradine raises it to an art form here. And the menace he conveys (even in Vol. 1, where you don't even see the motherfucker) is considerable. On the other hand, Church conveys a helluva range of emotion, and is able to hold your attention for a longer period of time (again, he should arguably be up for best lead performance) and creates an equally memorable character. I'm stumped.