In 2029, We're All Pretty Much Screwed
Published December 25, 2004
From here:
There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 396 metres long, could hit earth in 2029, a Nasa scientist said on Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
Unfortunately, newer data simply makes things worse:
December 24 Update: 2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers [sic] around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.
Sounds like wishful thinking to me...
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!
Oh yeah, and Merry Christmas!
RJ Elliott is a graduate student studying Criminal Justice at the University Of Central Florida. His likes include nature, sports, and pierced blondes. He dislikes daytime television, left-wing dictators, and lead-tainted Chinese imports. He is ambivalent about Angelina Jolie.
- In 2029, We're All Pretty Much Screwed
- Published: December 25, 2004
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- Section: Sci/Tech
- Filed Under: Sci/Tech: Science
- Writer: RJ Elliott
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Comments on this articleComments
Actually, last I heard the odds were UPGRADED to 1-in-45...
Actually, last I heard the odds for the asteroid, while the odds for a volcano in the Canary Islands exploding so violently some time in the next few thousand years that it will send 100-foot tidal waves all over the Atlantic (including the US, Central, and South America) have been upgraded.
Who's for forgetting all about this stuff and meeting me down-the-pub?
Drinking DOES help one forget... ;)
Though, I have received a more recent update that pretty much eliminates all possibility of this asteroid smashing into earth in 2029. Maybe at a later date, but not in 2029.
Sleep well... ;)
IMHO, Armageddon is WAY better than Deep Impact, and should have been first in your ISBN/ASIN list. (grin)
Seriously, Did anyone else get a shiver from Eric B's comment (on 12/25) about a tsunami coming to the South Pacific?
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Egads: in astronomical terms, 1 in 300 sounds like an awfully close call. I wonder, in a scenario where the odds grow dramatically for collision, if the world would band together to create a weapons system to destroy the sucker.
Eric Berlin
Dumpster Bust: Miracles from Mind Trash
http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com