Polls a Sham?
Published September 18, 2004
In a follow-up to Jeremy Chrysler's post last week about the inaccuracies of the polls since they do not call people with cell phones, I posted this over at my site:
Apparently, pollsters don't call cell phones. There are 169 million cell phone users in the U.S. A large chunk of these users are younger people (voters) who don't have a land line. I'm pretty sure if this is true that this would make the polls grossly inaccurate. I can name at least 10 of my close friends who no longer have a land line. We'll see where this goes. If anyone has more info, feel free to post. I found this article over at the Electoral Vote predictor. Maybe they'll have more information in the coming days. The author of the site is saying that if this information is correct, the polls aren't accurate and therefore the information he gives on his site is not accurate.
- Polls a Sham?
- Published: September 18, 2004
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- Section: Politics
- Writer: Brendan Creecy
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Comments on this articleComments
Obviously polls are fake, they have no peer review, polling companies don't expose their raw data, they don't do due diligence on their reports versus the actual results, and they are just adjuncts to PR companies.
As they say in the ad industry, "Research proves research works".
All polls have no more credibility than the "Pepsi Challenge".
Polls do more harm than good
The 9/10 issue of the Economist (p.27) lists a few reasons why polls shouldn't be trusted:
- The most recent Times and Gallup polls surveyed voters they considered "likely to vote" but history has shown that polls of "registered voters" are more likely to predict results more accurately.
- Some polls oversample Republicans so are weighted against Kerry.
- "Pollsters have long recognized [that] people who feel public opinion polls shifting in their direction are more confident about telling polsters what they think than those who don't."
A Newsweek poll has Bush leading Kerry 49 to 43, but used a sample that broke down to 31% Democrats but 38% Republican. If you normalize this to reflect party registration, the results give Kerry the lead. (You can't actually do that statistically - the samples have to be right in the first place - but you get the idea.)
A further problem is that polls showing a candidate winning tend to convince his opponents supporters that this will happen.
There's a detailed look at current polls part way down the page at There's A Problem With The CBS News/NYT Poll As Well, which was weighted GOP: 426 (34%), Dem: 399 (31%), Ind: 462 (36%) ("if this poll had been reweighted to reflect more closely the actual turnout of the 2000 election, Bush's 8-point lead evaporates into a 47%-46% tie").
Also drop a bit further down the page to Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning. The sampling weighting to give Republicans an advantage was GOP: 305 (40%), Dem: 253 (33%), Ind: 208 (28%). ("Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this whole election season, for all their national and state polls")
Strange how the errors keep breaking in Bush's favor.
How many posts are you going to respond to with the same exact comment, Hal?
Hey look it's "cut and paste" Hal.
Does anyone find it odd that the crying starts over polls after Bush takes a lead in most of them?
Do a little more research and you'll find the NYT/C BS News poll has been weighted in the opposite direction in the past.
How many righties, RJ, are going to post on the same topic? That many.
Your inability to address (or perhaps recognize and understand) an issue, Marc, doesn't require a response.
it must be a real yuk fest hanging out with you hal....you libs take things too seriously....do you know how to laugh?
Thanks, RJ, for all your substantive contributions to this and other topics.
yes libs know how to laugh. we have been laughing our ass off for the past four years at that moron pussy ass president that the supremes put in the whitehouse. my god...if we didn't have a sense of humor, we would have shot ourselves with our new uzis and automatic weapons.
we have been laughing our ass off at the whore red lipstick that the first lady wears and wishing she still sold dime bags.
laughing that right wingers think jesus is in the whitehouse and that he hates everyone that doesn't believe like the fundies.
laughing because it is our turn to spew the venom like the right wingers have made a career out of, and now we (the laughing libs) are ready to spew back. laughing because it doesn't take a lick of sense to spew venom.
it will make the country a lot more funny if bush wins. you can only make so many flip flop jokes but with a pussy ass moron like bush and a shit eating vp like cheney, it just leaves this planet wide open for one big fucking laugh fest.
funny huh?
jack e. jett
hey jack, since you hate it here so much, why don't you try cuba? it's warm all the time and i hear they have great medical care for everyone....you could get in line for a lobotomy
And there it is! I haven't seen one of those "love it or leave it" cries in at least a week!
You can always count on 'em, though.
i wouldn't want to go to cuba as it has a dictatorship......oh wait..that's here.
plus, my liberal venom would have less of an impact from cuba.
it might please you to know that this lib is going to france for a while, so we can all sit around laughing at the moron pussy lipped president over a bottle of red wine (or two)
thanks for the lobotomy suggestion. i called to schedule one, however, they are booked with the neo-cons for the next couple of years.
now help me out....was the line about lobotomy and cuba....a joke? see we libs do have a sense of humor...but the right wingers must know how to set up a joke BEFORE THE PUNCHLINE.
jacque e. jett
lobotomyless
jack, your ignorance is showing....any good lib who knows anything about us neo-cons is aware that we pay cash for our lobotomies....only the best doctors for us.....same day service too....remember, you can't wear your burka while you're in france....no one will know you have panties on though.... au revoir
"And there it is! I haven't seen one of those "love it or leave it" cries in at least a week!"
Seriously, if someone really hates it here, and thinks things are going to hell, and thinks other countries are doing things better, why DON'T they leave?
I know I wouldn't want to stay in a country that was becoming "fascist" and run by a "drooling idiot."
rj, i think jack is taking your advice.....hey jack, if i set you up in a pension on the "cote d'azur" would you promise to stay forever? don't worry about your absentee ballot, they never count those anyway....and it woldn,t make a difference this year if they did....and it's "adieu" if you will see the person again soon, and "au revoir" when it's long term....like a funeral.....au revoir
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good point Brandan, my daughter doesn't have a land line and we are only allowed to call during "free minutes" time - fascist