Is the Tide Turning?
Published August 27, 2004
Yesterday, the L.A. Times publicized that, for the first time, Bush was leading Kerry in the popular vote for the first time in months. But many state poll results were released yesterday as well, and the results don't look good for John Kerry.
Back on August 7th, Gerry Dale's electoral tracker reported the following:
Bush: 187As of yesterday night, the numbers were a little closer:
Kerry: 228
Up for Grabs: 123
Kerry 194However, a closer look at the 'tossups' reveals that Bush is 'leading' in that category 101-65, which would give him a 279-259 victory. That's just one tracker though.
Bush 178
Tossups 166
Three weeks ago, the LA Times predicted the following results:
Bush 147 Kerry 165 Tossups 226Looking at their results and filling in the states wherein either candidate has a 3% or greater advantage, one gets the following results:
Bush 220 Kerry 249 Tossups 69If the tossup polls were predictive of actual votes, Bush would capture 52 of the remaining 62 electoral votes and win 279-259, just as Dale's predictor suggests.
On 8/07, we also looked at Cook Political. It hasn't changed in overall constitution, but it was only updated on August 16th, so it wouldn't be that helpful anyway.
In any case, it still looks to be a close election, but I do think that Kerry has peaked, barring some unforseen revelation about Bush that can change a lot of voters minds. The question is, can Kerry hold on till November?
love it, hate it, there's more of it at pacetown.
- Is the Tide Turning?
- Published: August 27, 2004
- Type:
- Section: Culture
- Writer: Jeremy Chrysler
- Jeremy Chrysler's BC Writer page
- Jeremy Chrysler's personal site
- Spread the Word
- Like this article?
- Email this
Save to del.icio.us
Comments on this articleComments
Bush's re-election is assured. He'll come out of the convention with a nice bounce and Kerry will find it impossible to catch him.
Of course, it will be fun watching the rightists squirm when Bush savagely raises payroll and consumption taxes and cuts domestic spending early in his second term.
Is all this what's called "whistling through the graveyard?"
Besides, if the right were smart, they'd hope that Bush lost because next year everything done wrong on terrorism, the invasion of Iraq, and the economy will catch up with whoever is sitting in the White House.
They should be hoping that's not Bush.
On top of which, if you're into polls, check out the comments for this BC post.
Kerry is headed for a no-sweat win.
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/19134)
Everyone knows I'm a supporter of the President. With that said, anything could happen between now and election day, so I'm in "wait-and-see" mode.
BTW - Dana Stevens, and strong supporter of Senator Kerry's campaign published an article on Slate. Here is an outtake (snip):
Ouch!
David Flanagan