Eh. These are all too close to call. The "gap" that supposedly indicates that Bush is "winning" is still well within the margin of error. (Besides, polls mean nothing until around October or so.)

Besides, the "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" have all been revealed as liars. So I think that whole thing backfired for them.

"Besides, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth have all been revealed as liars."

All of them?

"So I think that whole thing backfired for them."

The polls tell a different story...

These polls basically show a toss-up in terms of electoral college votes - very interesting

thanks
Jason

RJ did his homework for one. Good job researching this.

I think it's still basically a tie, but the real numbers that should concern Kerry are that Bush has been trending upward for the last couple of months in his approval rating and in people's opinion of both the economy and Iraq.

This LA Times poll shows Bush pulling ahead slightly in the key swing states of Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Bush was expected to be ahead in the first two, but to lose the latter would be damaging to Kerry.

www.newsday.com/news/politics/la-082604poll_lat,0,7912861,print.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

Richard Roeper (yes, Ebert's co-host whose day job is as a general columnist) is decidedly more optimistic and he calls the electoral college for Kerry like this:

www.suntimes.com/output/roeper/cst-nws-roep25.html

"First, you have to accept the reality that in more than half the states, the election is over. Kerry will win California by at least a dozen points, and Bush will carry his home state of Texas by at least 20 points. Kerry is a gimme in Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and New York, among other states, while Bush can't lose in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah, and a host of other states.

Of the 538 total votes in the Electoral College, as many as 400 are locked in, with Kerry having about 220 votes, and Bush about 180. It's the remaining 130-plus votes in the so-called swing states that will decide the election.

One such state is Ohio, which was captured by Bush in the 2000 election by a 50-46 margin. In the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, Kerry has a 2-point lead over Bush among likely voters. That's the very definition of a toss-up.

But among registered voters, Kerry's lead is 10 points. The experts say the race is still too close to call, but I ask you: would you rather have a 10-point lead among likely voters or people who have already signed up for voter action?

I'm calling Ohio for Kerry. I might be wrong, but I'll have been wrong first.

The Roeper Poll

Forget all that toss-up or too-close-to-call stuff. It's either red or blue -- in black and white. Feel free to clip this or cut and paste it, so you can mock (or salute) my prognostications come November.

Alabama (9 votes): Bush
Alaska (3): Bush
Arizona (10): Bush
Arkansas (6): Kerry
California (55): Kerry
Colorado (9): Bush
Connecticut (7): Kerry
Delaware (3): Kerry
D.C. (3): Kerry
Florida (27): Kerry
Georgia (15): Bush
Hawaii (4) Kerry
Idaho (4): Bush
Illinois (21): Kerry
Indiana (11): Bush
Iowa (7): Kerry
Kansas (6): Bush
Kentucky (8): Bush
Louisiana (9): Bush
Maine (4): Kerry
Maryland (10): Kerry
Massachusetts (12): Kerry
Michigan (17): Kerry
Minnesota (10): Kerry
Mississippi (6): Bush
Missouri (11): Bush
Montana (3): Bush
Nebraska (5): Bush
Nevada (5): Kerry
N.H. (4): Bush
New Jersey (15): Kerry
New Mexico (5): Kerry
New York (31): Kerry
North Carolina (15): Bush
North Dakota (3): Bush
Ohio (20): Kerry
Oklahoma (7): Bush
Oregon (7): Kerry
Penn. (21): Kerry
Rhode Island (4): Kerry
South Carolina (8): Bush
South Dakota (3): Bush
Tennessee (11): Bush
Texas (34): Bush
Utah (5): Bush
Vermont (3): Kerry
Virginia (13): Bush [close]
Washington (11): Kerry
West Virginia (5): Bush
Wisconsin (10): Kerry
Wyoming (3): Bush

That's 318 electoral votes for Kerry, 220 for Bush. I can see the Boss playing President Kerry's Inaugural Ball now: "Glory days, glory days ..."

Let's say Bush swings Florida and Ohio. That would give him 267 votes -- but Kerry would have 271, still (just) enough to win.

And then we'll be looking at Nevada as the state that made the difference for Kerry."

Anyone who orders "Unfit for Command" off of the link above is a douche.

That is all.

I think BAB is closer to the truth. I expect a Kerry win in the electoral college. What is interesting is that there is a distinct possibility that Bush could win the popular vote this time and still lose, a reversal of 2000.

Not so fast, RJ.

Bloomberg.com: U.S. "President George W. Bush and John Kerry remain deadlocked in the race for the U.S. presidency, five national polls show, indicating that an anti-Kerry advertising campaign by a Vietnam veterans group has failed to hurt him or help the president."

"Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, leads Bush by 2 percentage points in a George Washington University poll and by 1 point in a Fox News survey."

Catch that, RJ? A FOX NEWS poll...

"An Investor's Business Daily poll shows the candidates even, while Bush leads in polls by the Los Angeles Times and the Gallup Organization. All results are within the surveys' margins for error."

Like I said yesterday, the Swifties have been discredited. They will only keep sinking. Karma, as you say, is a bitch...

The Economy has gone from bad to worse in the last year. The man has done nothing constructive for the American Economy since he came to power. His excuse has always been he is a "war time president" whatever that means. How long are you guys going to let him get away with that excuse?! Why on earth would Bush's approval rating regarding the Economy be on the up?

Oh dear! Well, since I am not American, I will do my bit by ensuring that lover votes Kerry or else.....

I am more interested than I have ever been in any American election because I could well be living there within the next 4 years. Healthcare/medicare, whatever you guys call it is in a complete and utter mess.

Besides, I am sick and tired of being told the exchange rate each time I get a gift from an American.

I shudder to think Dubya will still be in power should one be finally persuaded to leave the relative madness of the UK to the complete lunacy of North America.

with the country being so divided....does it matter all that much who gets elected? one way or another, there is going to be about 50% of the population that is pissed off.

jack e. jett

"with the country being so divided....does it matter all that much who gets elected? one way or another, there is going to be about 50% of the population that is pissed off."

Yeah, but I want it to be the OTHER side who is pissed... ;)

The Zogby poll joins the crowd in projecting Kerry as a winner:

"U.S. presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, which consists of a minimum of three electors from each state, based on the number of representatives in Congress. Those Electoral College totals also are based on population; 270 are needed to win the White House. "A separate telephone survey of 16 battleground states released yesterday by Zogby International gave Kerry an edge above the margin of error in 10 and leads within the margin of error in three others. One state - Missouri - was a dead heat. Bush led by margins above the margin of error in two states -Ohio and West Virginia, both of which he captured in 2000.

"Based on the Zogby results, Kerry would pick up nine Electoral College votes - four in New Hampshire, and five in Nevada - in taking states that Bush won in 2000.

"The current Zogby count calculates that Kerry would get 286 Electoral College votes, Bush 214.

Sandra, you picked a good race to focus on as this one is pivotal to what America will be in this century.

It will decide whether neocons will drive foreign policy or whether Kerry gets to send in the decon squad and join the world again.

In taxes, it will decide whether the tax burden continues to get shifted to wage earners, or whether all income is taxed and whether corporations, essentially immortal citizens in the US, pay a share of that. Currently businesses generate only 10% of federal tax revenue, and many use legal loop holes to pay nothing - a company called Wachovia made a profit of $3 billion ($3 thousand million) in profits (profits, not sales) and paid no taxes.

For individuals, Bush has pushed a huge burden onto wage-earners with his tax cuts, and the objective is to make all "unearned income" tax-free, meaning no taxes for those collecting interest, dividends and capital gains on things like stocks. To put that in perspective, the top 20% of Americans in income own 76% of the stocks, so this is a massive income redistribution upwards, and a massive road block to upward mobility.

The deficits now are on the way to making the US a huge debtor nation, and the country now owes trillions to China and others.

In trade, globalization has set a process in motion that resembles water seeking its own level - other nations gain wealth while American loses, until an equilibrium is reached.

The right wing, including many neoconservatives, are pushing this and calling it "free trade" but if you look at the trade deals that this administration has struck, you find that they call them "Free Trade Agreements" but they're really protectionist for certain industries (and campaign contributors). A good example is the so-called "Free Trade Agreement" with Australia. [The "Cargo Cult" Is Alive and Well - Today It's Called "Free Trade" opens in new window]

We're on a cusp and to get back in the right direction, we need to change the policy makers, starting in the White House.