RJ, I don't see you gloating, but in your earlier NBA Finals thread, you were RIGHT and our resident Arrogant Pedantic was... well, let's check his predicitions...

Booey: WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG

and...

...wait...

he predicts, he analyzes, he shoots...

--- ~~~O

~AIRBALL!

Anyway, RJ, I think you should gloat yer ass off -- and that you should insist that our Booey baby get down on his digital knees and lick yer high-tops here in public.

It's the least he can do.

I hope the sports world acknowledges and gives proper credit to the skill of the Pistons.

I got tired of hearing, "What's wrong with the Lakers?" -- when it was obvious that the answer was PISTONS DEFENSE.

(I just hope the Mavericks learned something by watching.)

PS: Every year, my wife gets hooked on the NBA playoffs. This year, she picked the Pistons early on, and did her own dancing and gloating last night after the game.

The best part: I wake up this morning and she's watching "Cold Pizza" on ESPN.

Now for me, that's a lady!

Shark:

Gloat? ME?

You know I'm far too classy for such things... ;-]

RJ was right but for the wrong reasons. I had all the details figured out and predicted the Billups-Payton matchup and help defense on Kobe would be key, I just didn't anticipate that the Pistons would be so effective. No one else did, either. Of all the national beat writers who cover the NBA, only one picked the Pistons to win.

The Lakers were exposed as a mediocre defensive team and their lack of depth and team speed really hurt them. I'd love to see the Pistons keep this up for a few years -- they'd be the unlikeliest dynasty in NBA history. But only if they re-sign Rasheed Wallace, of course, which looks likely. I do think that a team like San Antonio or Minnesota would have matched up better against the Pistons. The Spurs-Pistons would have been a classic 7-game series with very little scoring and extremely close scores. I think the Pistons probably would have beaten the Wolves in 6 and the Spurs in 7.

I give RJ credit, though. He made a bold pick with his heart and it paid off.

Anyways, random comments from envious, effeminate old men who don't know anything about sports aside, let's talk some hardcore hoops. The following is a long discussion that I realize most of you won't follow since you got picked last in gym growing up, but I never want to hear any comments again about how I don't "blog" for you folks:

This shapes up as potentially the most interesting off-season in NBA history. The draft is Thursday and we might see the biggest flurry of blockbuster trades in our lifetime.

Here's some of the latest:

The Lakers:
Everything's changing.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?id=1824810

As expected, Phil is out. He'll take a year off and look at opportunities in Denver (a rapidly improving team in an area Phil and his sons are attached to) and Phoenix. Shaq wants a trade because Jerry Buss and the Lakers have made Kobe their plan.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?id=1824721

The Lakers should pray that Kobe is A) acquitted and B) doesn't sign with the Clippers or Spurs because they could be left empty-handed if they lose BOTH Kobe and Shaq. If Kobe is playing for them next year, they'll be a contender if they get good value for Shaq but will not advance past the second round of the West for a couple of years. The odds of Shaq and Kobe staying together are low and if they did, they wouldn't win a title next year anyway. Mitch Kupchak and Jerry Buss now realize this and are rebuilding because of it.

Gary Payton will extend his contract since his market value is way down. Karl Malone is a free agent and will probably retire, but he may come back to try one more time to win a ring, although perhaps not in LA -- maybe he'll take Mark Cuban's offer this time). Derek Fisher has an option on his contract and will probably opt-out so that he can get more money and a chance at a starting job somewhere despite a decidedly mediocre season.

The Lakers are rumored to be looking at Rudy Tomjanovich (a great fit and the choice I'd make but still recovering from cancer), Henry Bibby from USC, and George Karl. Karl would rub Kobe the wrong way as he does all his players. I'd say the most LIKELY future coach of the Lakers is Bibby since he's the most likely to coddle a petulant superstar like Kobe, but it'd be a coup if they got a rejuvenated Rudy T to teach Kobe some discipline and respect for the team concept in his own inspiring, player-friendly way. The stories that came out about Pat Riley returning to the Lakers are just stories since Riley has a cush job with the Heat and needs to put in one more year to get equity in the team. He'd stand to lose millions upon millions to go into an uncertain situation with untold pressure in LA. It's almost certain that he'll wait another year to pick the best job open to him after leaving Miami.

The other big news is that Tracy McGrady wants out of Orlando.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1824663

There are some fascinating superstar combinations and trade possibilities with both Shaq and TMac that could reshape the entire NBA, particularly the East. What makes it even more interesting is that Orlando has the top pick in the NBA draft, which could net some team Emeka Okafor -- who will be a good defender and rebounder but not a superstar -- or lead to even more talent changing hands in return for that pick. The most interesting suggestion, but an unlikely one, is a situation where Shaq gets his wish to return to Orlando to play with McGrady. That team would be an instant contender with the Pistons. So would a Pacers team with McGrady, which is a far more likely possibility since Ron Artest's shot selection and erratic behavior is wearing out its welcome with Rick Carlisle, as he does eventually anywhere else he'll go. A Houston trade involving McGrady would be interesting and probably improve the Rockets somewhat, but I don't see McGrady being happy in Jeff Van Gundy's slow, methodical offense or vice versa with TMac's defense.

It's likely that Orlando would have to give up McGrady and their #1 pick and possibly some of their big expiring contracts in a three-team deal if they're serious about getting Shaq. The Kobe-McGrady scenario on the Lakers would make any fan of scoring drool, but it's never going to happen since Kobe is too sensitive about sharing the basketball and having another comparable superstar (actually a BETTER scorer and almost as popular) on his team. Hence the three-team deal. I would actually hope my Bulls get involved in the McGrady sweepstakes since they have as much young talent to offer as anyone and a #3 draft pick along with expiring contracts like Scottie Pippen's. John Paxson is a bright basketball mind, but he's shown a conservative side so far in his tenure as GM that makes me worry about his willingness to make the big, bold move.

Memphis is frequently mentioned as a destination for Shaq -- I'm not sure that Memphis has enough talent to send back, but don't underestimate Jerry West, one of the best GMs in the history of the game. Shaq would make any team an instant contender and I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers rise once again as the focal point of an offense. I'd give Shaq pretty good odds of being next season's MVP if he stays healthy and keeps his weight down. There's no question he'll be motivated. The Phil Jackson to Memphis discussion if Shaq is traded there is silly since Phil and Jerry West couldn't get along the first time. The Lakers were willing to force out a legendary GM because of Phil's insecurities and I'm almost certain Phil would ask for player personnnel authority in his next go-round in Denver or Phoenix. Shaq would push for Phil if he's anywhere else, but in Memphis no dice. I'd love to see Shaq in Chicago as well, but the Bulls don't appear to be thinking that big.

This draft is disappointing and the smart teams will be trading their high picks for established NBA talent or trading down in the lottery to get high school prospects like Shawn Livingston. Dwight Howard could jump to the top pick (depending upon who has it) since I think teams are less and less enthralled with Okafor -- McGrady has already gone on record as saying he doesn't think Okafor would help the Magic much. Luol Deng, the other player mentioned for the top 3, isn't a particularly impressive athlete and won't help a team win right away. He projects to be a solid starter on a very good NBA team, but not a superstar, much like the rest of the draft. This is one reason I think the Bulls will trade down from the #3 pick for veterans and to get a shot at Ben Gordon from Connecticut, who will be a very good NBA scorer.

A look at the unprotected expansion list for the Charlotte team also reveals how many superstars with big contracts are available and could switch teams, including most of the Mavericks roster. Mark Cuban always makes a big move and this off-season will be no exception. He wants Shaq bad and Shaq would certainly toughen up that soft interior. Plus, he's one of the few owners who would pay Shaq all the money he wants and more despite his age and declining skills. I don't think Charlotte will bite on any of the big, expensive players like Antoine Walker, even with the $3 million incentives teams are allowed to offer. Charlotte could be a big player in trades this week, though, with the #4 pick and the leverage afforded by their potential to take big contracts off of team's hands. They're almost certain to be a part of some 3-way trade.

There's much more to say and I hope someone like RJ will blog after the draft and all the big trades go down. It should be fascinating and historic.
Kudos to ESPN for some of their coverage.

That is all.

One more team I forgot: I hope the Spurs are big players for some of the big names out there in trades. They couldn't sign anyone big last off-season with all that cap room, thanks to Tony Parker driving off Jason Kidd. There's been some talk that they'd trade their solid role players like Nesterovic, Turkoglu, and Ginobli and could have interest in Kobe in a sign-and-trade. Coach Gregg Popovich is also the de facto GM in San Antonio and I'm not sure I buy the rumors of his interest in Kobe. I think that's unlikely but it might work since Tim Duncan is so unassuming and unselfish. I don't know whether Popovich's system of defense and nice guy teamwork would accomodate the NBA's most selfish and most brilliant individual player, though -- Kobe would almost certainly disrupt all the chemistry and bonding that team has done to make itself so great. He'd also severely retard Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli's development into legit NBA stars for several reasons. I'd LOVE to see the Spurs go after someone like McGrady, a much better fit, although I'm not sure they'd have enough based on what the Magic are asking of the Pacers and other suitors. If the Spurs make a bold move, they can become the front-runners and start talking dynasty. The talk is that Pop and the rest of the team were shaken up by their crushing loss to the Lakers -- I can only hope that means they'll make some changes to be more competitive in the increasingly top-heavy NBA. Duncan is a God, but once again he finds that he needs more help around him to score.

I don't expect the T-Wolves or Kings to have the flexibility to make big moves, although the Kings would like to trade Chris Webber if they can get good value due to his injuries and declining athleticism. There's also talk that they'd consider trading Peja Stojakovic after his soft performance in the playoffs -- he doesn't appear to be the player you build around, but rather a good number two complementary scorer. The Kings' window is rapidly closing and their best chance at a title is past them. The Wolves, on the other hand, seem to finally have a team that they can contend with for a while. It's too bad they had a bad signing for big money like Michael Olowokandi, whom they won't be able to unload or rely upon. Otherwise, Kevin McHale has done a good job since his Joe Smith blunder -- which cost him three years of number one draft picks and would have cost most GMs their job -- and he will do what he can to offer players like Wally Sczerbiak and Olowokandi in trades to improve his team around Kevin Garnett.

The Pistons' victory -- and perhaps even moreso the Lakers' decline -- will make teams think a lot more about teamwork and chemistry in building their rosters, so expect that to factor in the trades teams do and don't make in the coming days.

That is all. Honestly.

Yes, I was on meth when I wrote this. Save your dumb comments unless you have something to say about basketball.

Not that any of you care about sports, but here's what's going on with the NBA draft tonight and the latest trade rumors:

Orlando is undecided between Emeka Okafor of Connecticut and high schooler Dwight Howard. The news early in the week was that they wanted Okafor, but there's talk now that they're leaning toward Howard because of his star potential and because of Okafor's history of back problems.

The other big news for Orlando is Tracy McGrady's trade situation.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1827052

The talk a couple of days ago was that McGrady was headed to Houston along with Juwan Howard for Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, and Kelvin Cato. There were a few other marginal players named as possible inclusions in the trade, like Andrew DeClercq , Tyronn Lue and Reece Gaines of the Magic and Bostjan Nachbar of the Rockets. The trade could not be finalized until July 15th due to Francis's contract and NBA rules on trades from July 1 - 15.

My guess is McGrady goes to the Rockets after all, despite Steve Francis saying he's reluctant to play in Orlando.

The Phoenix Suns were the other big players, but they've given up, dealing the number 7 pick they were offering along with Shawn Marion and either Casey Jacobsen or Joe Johnson for McGrady. They are now looking at pursuing Steve Nash of Dallas and mid-level free agents like Mehmet Okur of Detroit (who will also look at Denver). They will make their sales pitch to Kobe, but it won't work.

That #7 pick will now go to the Chicago Bulls for a future first-round pick, a second-round pick this year, and $3 million in cash. The Bulls will almost certainly select Oregon swingman Luke Jackson and will have their choice of keeping Jackson to be their starting small forward or trading him to the Pacers for Al Harrington. The Bulls will also take Ben Gordon with the #3 pick in the draft and play him in their backcourt with Kirk Hinrich, trading Jamal Crawford or letting him go as a free agent. They will also likely try to trade Tyson Chandler, possibly along with other players to Washington for Samuel Dalembert and/or Jarvis Hayes. Center Eddy Curry is also available for the right bidder, but will likely stay.

The new player in the McGrady derby is the Clippers, who could offer their #4 draft pick -- obtained from Charlotte, who now owns the Clippers' original #2 pick and will take whichever of Okafor or Howard the Magic leaves on the board -- along with Cory Magette and others like Melvin Ely and Chris Wilcox. I'd imagine serious talks would require the Clippers to give up one of their other talented young players like Chris Kaman or possibly even Keyon Dooling or (less likely) Quentin Richardson. Keep in mind the Clippers are still interested in making a play for Kobe Bryant despite all the signs Kobe will stay with the Lakers. One reason for their trading down of picks with the expansion Charlotte Bobcats was to free up cap room for a run at Kobe or to trade for a big contract like McGrady's. The fact that the Clippers are now pursuing McGrady leads you to believe Kobe returning to the Lakers is a done deal, but I'm not sure the Clippers have enough to offer to land McGrady.

It appears that the Pacers have given up on landing McGrady, since their offer of Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Jonathan Bender, and possibly others was rebuffed. Their willingness to trade Harrington to the Bulls (for the #7 pick or forward Tyson Chandler and other considerations) also indicates that the Pacers have given up on Larry Bird's big plans to remake his team by landing McGrady. It doesn't look like they'll be players for Shaq, either, but they could offer many of the same players, along with others like Austin Croshere, Jeff Foster, Scott Pollard, and Jamison Brewer. Ron Artest is definitely on the market and could land in Memphis, according to the Chicago Tribune's Sam Smith (who has written several excellent columns this week that I'm referencing).

Also on the market are Paul Pierce of Boston and Michael Finley of Dallas -- I think a team would be smart to get Pierce if the price was right.

Most of the talk about a Shaq trade revolves around Dallas:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1827125

The Mavericks traded Antwan Jamison to the Wizards for Jerry Stackhouse, Christian Laettner, and the number 5 pick in the draft. I think this is a good trade for both teams, although I'm sure Dallas would have loved to unload Antoine Walker. The Lakers are refusing to trade Shaq to a rival like Dallas unless Dirk Nowitzki is included in the package, which Dallas also will not budge on. The talk now is that Dallas is offering Steve Nash (assuming he agrees to a sign-and-trade), Walker, the number 5 pick, a young player like Josh Howard or Marquis Daniels, and possibly veterans like Danny Fortson and Shawn Bradley. This is now Shaq's preferred destination because he knows Cuban will pay him, but I have a hard time believing the Lakers will give Shaq to the Mavs unless they don't get any other credible offer. Shaq will be traded and the longer it takes, the better for the Mavs.

The other, perhaps most likely destination for Shaq is Memphis, which could offer Pau Gasol, Bonzi Wells, Lorenzen Wright, and Bo Outlaw among others. Jerry West and owner Michael Heisley would be determined to get Shaq and pay him.

The Kings and Spurs are also hated rivals for the Lakers, making a trade unlikely, but they could respectively offer players like Brad Miller, Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson, and a sign-and-traded Vlade Divac or Rasho Nesterovic, Malik Rose, Manu Ginobli or Hedo Turkoglu, or other players. Peja would make a great complement to Kobe.

A dark horse destination for several stars could be the Nets, who are unsure if they can re-sign Kenyon Martin with teams like Denver and Atlanta willing to pay him. The Nets also have to work on re-signing Richard Jefferson and are trying to trade their low first-round pick to the Blazers to free cap space. The Blazers have players like Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff, and Ruben Patterson that they would offer for players like Shaq or possibly Martin.

The Sonics could also make Ray Allen available for the right player, with Vitaly Potapenko, Vlad Radmanovic, and Calvin Booth as incentives to sweeten any deals. I don't know that Ray Allen could play with Kobe in LA, but the Sonics could become aggressive in the next few days or weeks, another dark horse.

Sam Smith also reports a rumor that Allen Iverson and Vince Carter could be a part of blockbuster deals, possibly for each other. Philly is also interested in the slipping Luol Deng and could look to move up in the draft -- perhaps a team like the Clippers or Atlanta (#6) could be involved in a swap of picks for Philly's #9 or an even bigger deal involving AI.

All of this is enough to make your head spin. It'll be interesting to see how some of it breaks down tonight and the trades that will happen by mid-July involving many of these stars. The biggest story will obviously be Shaq and TMac, but half of the teams in the NBA have the potential to significantly alter their rosters with trades.

That is all.

I've been reading the usual columnists and rumor sources for all the info on the draft and trades during my day off from work today, so here's yet more overkill that no one will ever read.

Some more rumors on the Bulls' end:

The Sonics have offered Ray Allen and the #12 pick for Tyson Chandler, Jerome Williams, and the #3 pick. I think I'd take that.

Miami has offered Caron Butler, Eddie Jones, and the #19 pick for Chandler, Williams, Scottie Pippen's expiring 1-year contract, and the #3 pick. I wouldn't do that one, since you might be able to get Butler for Chandler and some other mix without giving up that draft pick. Eddie Jones is a good aging player the Bulls have liked for a long time, but his big salary is too much of a burden to take on.

The Rockets may be offering Cuttino Mobley, which indicates the TMac deal is in jeopardy, for either the #3 or #7 pick.

The Celtics have offered Paul Pierce for Tyson Chandler, the #3 pick, and other considerations. Another report says the Bulls initiated talks about Chandler, Antonio Davis, and the #3 pick for Pierce and other players. I definitely think there was smoke here since it was reported by more than one source, but Celtics GM Danny Ainge went out of his way to deny this today:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/heat/content/auto/epaper/editions/thursday/sports_04ad744032d732530024.html

The Jazz have offered Matt Harpring and the #16 pick for the #3 pick and Jerome Williams. I wouldn't take that one since #3 is too valuable and Harpring's only a solid player, not a star.

I'm excited because it looks like the Bulls have a chance to really improve. I'm sure there are plenty more rumors in your cities for your teams, but this gives you an idea who's being shopped.

If the Pacers can't get Luke Jackson from the Bulls at #7, they may trade Al Harrington to Cleveland for the #10 pick.

There's an old rumor that the Nets may trade Kerry Kittles and Aaron Williams to Portland for Shareef-Abdur Rahim, which would be a great trade for them and improve their chances to compete with Detroit. The trade could expand to include Ruben Patterson of the Blazers and Lucious Harris and Rodney Rogers of the Nets. There's been a little talk that Jason Kidd might be shopped since the Nets have financial concerns, but I doubt this rumor -- I would like to see him join the Spurs a year too late, but I don't see this happening. There's also the possibility of a trade involving Kenyon Martin for Ray Allen along with other players both ways that isn't probable. The Nets have also talked to Miami about Brian Grant and Eddie Jones. Peter Vescey reports that the Nets offered Martin in a sign-and-trade to Denver for Nene Hilario, but the Nuggets said no thanks to Martin's max salary demands.

The Artest deal to Memphis would be for Bonzi Wells and a first-round draft pick that Memphis would have to trade to obtain.

Rudy T will get the Lakers job. I was surprised that he wanted it, but his 2-day interview makes me think he's serious about coming back a year early from his cancer recovery.

Peter Vecsey of the New York Post says that the Clippers are Shaq's most likely destination for a package that could include Elton Brand, Cory Maggette, the #4 pick and Melvin Ely. This is the hot rumor involving Shaq.

Vecsey seems certain McGrady will go to Houston and I tend to agree with him.

The Knicks and Sonics are talking about Kurt Thomas for the #12 pick and Jerome James.

The Suns may not be completely out of the TMac derby. There's talk that trading their pick was to clear salary space for TMac's salary should the Magic decide to bite on an offer of Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson due to Steve Francis's attitude toward playing in Orlando.

Vecsey says Indiana is in the Shaq game and will wait on him. He claims they'd offer Jermaine O'Neal, Al Harrington, and Jonathan Bender or Jeff Foster. I find it hard to believe the Pacers would give up a superstar like the other O'Neal, but if they did, the Lakers will take this deal. This deal would keep the Lakers as contenders for the title and might actually improve them, as hard as that is to believe. Bender and Harrington are athletic young talent at the forward position that would improve the Lakers' team speed and defense and Jermaine O'Neal would be a force in the middle. I know Larry Bird wants to shake up his team, but I doubt he's offering Jermaine O'Neal. I'm fairly sure he'd try and trade Ron Artest and Jamaal Tinsley and anyone else before he gave up Jermaine.

The Amico Report cites MSNBC as the source for the Vince Carter for Allen Iverson rumor:

http://www.insidehoops.com/amico-062304.shtml

"Heck, even All-Star guards Allen Iverson and Vince Carter aren’t untouchable -- as MSNBC.com reported Philadelphia and Toronto just might swap the two players for each other."

If you've read this much, thanks for following the hardcore sports fan stuff. That is all.

The Clippers trade for Shaq might or might not include the #4 pick -- I'd imagine that the success of that trade might depend on its inclusion.