There are three likely scenarios for the U.S. elections this fall. None of them involve John Kerry becoming President.

The first scenario is that an improving job market and/or foreign policy developments will allow Bush to win by a comfortable margin. Immediately upon re-election, of course, the GOP will break its campaign promises by raising taxes and cutting social spending. It will need to do so to pay for its bloated military budget.

The second scenario is that the election will be close, a replay of 2000. In that case, Diebold and the other electronic voting companies will simply throw the election to the Republicans, allowing the GOP to maintain power.

The third scenario is that pre-election polls will show Kerry with a commanding lead. In that case, the Bush Administration will just cancel the elections and move the country to a modified form of military dictatorship.

Sound crazy? It's really common sense. The GOP can't afford to lose power. The scandals are too huge, the corruption too staggering, the stakes too high. For people like Cheney, getting kicked out of the White House would simply be a prelude to going to jail. And so they will do anything, absolutely anything, to stay in power.

Mark my words.