The mainstream media is tip-toeing lightly around this issue, but it seems pretty likely to me that the President has a criminal record, probably involving illegal narcotics, dating back to the early 1970s.

There is not yet iron-clad proof that would stand up in a court of law, of course, but I think a reasonable person could put together the known facts and reach the conclusion that President Bush is likely hiding an arrest or conviction on a criminal charge, most likely involving drugs, most likely in Texas.

You don't have to hate Bush, you don't have to imagine the worst about him. You just have to look at the facts and use logic.

For example, if you ask a child five times, "Did you break this lamp rough-housing around the house?" and the child refuses to answer, tries to change the subject, offers that there certainly are lamps that he didn't break, accuses you of hating him and demands defensively why you're asking...well, you don't have iron-clad proof, do you? There's no confession, no smoking gun. But you're allowed to use your brain and assume that it is most likely that the kid broke the lamp.

That's all you have to do with this situation. Just take the known facts, including the President's responses to questions, and apply some common sense.

The known, undisputed facts:

1) NO DENIAL. President Bush and his spokespeople have consistently refused to say whether the President has a criminal record dating to the early 1970s.

2) WELL, OKAY, A WEIRD NON-DENIAL DENIAL OF SORTS. The President has played an odd game, however--in response to questions about cocaine use during his 2000 campaign, Bush said he could have passed an FBI background check when his father was President. Those background checks apparently go back 7, 11 or 15 years, depending. George H.W. Bush took office in January 1989. A conviction for, say, possession of illegal narcotics in 1972 would not be covered by any of the possible time spans. Why would Bush give such an odd response? Why not issue a blanket denial? (FYI, he had no problem issuing a blanket denial regarding sex--he freely claimed, in a very clear way, with apparently no privacy concerns whatsoever, that he had never cheated on his wife.)

3) HE STOPPED FLYING WITH THE GUARD IN APRIL 1972. This is unusual--the Texas Air National Guard does not take lightly the inactivity of its very expensively trained pilots.

4) HE DIDN'T SHOW UP FOR HIS MEDICAL EXAM IN MAY 1972. As a result, he was officially grounded by the Air Guard. This remarkable fact remains unexplained to this day. David Niewert posts the latest evasions: