BEST ACTOR

• Johnny Depp, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
• Ben Kingsley, HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
• Jude Law, COLD MOUNTAIN
• Bill Murray, LOST IN TRANSLATION
• Sean Penn, MYSTIC RIVER

After Bill Murray’s win at the Golden Globes he’s close to being the front-runner. His work in “Translation” is stunning, but all signs point to Penn taking the Award. Penn is an actor who has consistently given great performances and his work in “Mystic River” ranks as one of his best.

While none of the nominees are all that surprising, Johnny Depp’s nod is a bit unexpected. It is a brilliant comedic performance, and made the overlong, underwritten “Pirates” watchable, but Depp’s Oscar will come somewhere else down the line. The most glaring oversight is Paul Giamatti in “American Splendor.” Along with Penn and Murray it was one of the year’s best performances.

BEST ACTRESS

• Keisha Castle-Hughes, WHALE RIDER
• Diane Keaton, SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
• Samantha Morton, IN AMERICA
• Charlize Theron, MONSTER
• Naomi Watts, 21 GRAMS

In the interests of full disclosure, I admit that of all the nominees I’ve only seen Diane Keaton in “Something’s Gotta Give.” It’s a stellar comic performance, and that will be its jinx, unless she triggers a groundswell of nostalgia.

All signs point to Charlize Theron and her transformation into serial killer Aileen Wuornos in “Monster” as being the performance to beat. The nomination for “Whale Rider” is especially surprising, considering Castle-Hughes is only 13, which in some ways might work in her favor a la Anna Paquin in “The Piano.” And while it may seem funny to some, Uma Thurman deserved a nod for her graceful, hard-assed performance in “Kill Bill.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Alec Baldwin, THE COOLER
• Benicio Del Toro, 21 GRAMS
• Djimon Hounsou, IN AMERICA
• Tim Robbins, MYSTIC RIVER
• Ken Watanabe, THE LAST SAMURAI

Robbins has got the momentum after his Golden Globe win, and his work as the victim of childhood abuse in “Mystic River” is outstanding. His choice to play his character as a dead man walking, shell-shocked by violence was a wise one, and he has several moments that will break the heart of all but the strongest of souls.

Though a long shot, it would be great to see Baldwin take the Oscar for his ferocious work in “The Cooler.” Over the last decade Baldwin has slowly been finding his niche as a tough-guy character actor and superb comedic actor, and “The Cooler” is the end result. It’s a brutal, funny, and weirdly charming performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Shohreh Aghdashloo, HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
• Patricia Clarkson, PIECES OF APRIL
• Marcia Gay Harden, MYSTIC RIVER
• Holly Hunter, THIRTEEN
• Renée Zellweger, COLD MOUNTAIN