As for the other nominees, all are obvious choices, with "Return of the King" clearly the movie to beat after sweeping the Golden Globes on Sunday. While my affection for the "Lord of the Rings" films is lukewarm at best, they are grand achievements and impeccably made epics that have nabbed the zeitgeist. Still my heart lies with Sophia Coppola's remarkable "Lost in Translation," a deeply moving almost-romance. And Clint Eastwood's "Mystic River" still retains its power as a poetic street-level opera about the cycle of violence and the scars it leaves on generation after generation.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Sofia Coppola, LOST IN TRANSLATION
• Clint Eastwood, MYSTIC RIVER
• Peter Jackson, THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
• Fernando Meirelles, CITY OF GOD
• Peter Weir, MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD

Once again “Cold Mountain” was snubbed, with director Anthony Minghella being overlooked in favor of Fernando Meirelles of “City of God.” It is clearly the year’s most surprising choice, considering the picture barely received release earlier this year. I’ve yet to see it (it played theaters near 210 West’s central Ohio offices for under a week), but the word is overwhelmingly positive. Still, it doesn’t have a chance, but ultimately the attention it gains from this nomination will have to be reward enough.

As usual the director and best picture nominees don’t sync up, which means “Seabiscuit” won’t likely win best picture. The odds of it happening are rare, but not without precedent-Steven Spielberg took best director in 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan” while “Shakespeare in Love” ganked best picture and last year “Chicago” got best picture while Roman Polanski received best director for “The Pianist.”

Coppola will take the original screenplay award and the honor of being only the third woman and first American woman ever nominated for best director. Not only that, but her win will make her one of the great Hollywood success stories: scion of a Hollywood dynasty goes from acting infamy in "The Godfather, Part III" to well-respected writer/director in a little under 15 years. It's prime fodder for a Hollywood anecdote, and in this case, her work is more than deserving of the accolades.

This category boils down to Eastwood and Jackson. I think Jackson is about as close to a sure thing as can be. His work on the trilogy is almost unparalleled in Hollywood and it’s been pretty clear that by making “Lord of the Rings” the bridesmaid for the last three years the Academy has been waiting to honor the final film as a cumulative achievement. But don’t count Eastwood out. “Mystic River” is regaining momentum thanks to a successful re-release and his professionalism and craft on that film is superb and in many ways could be a factor in priming the pump for an upset.