Bush Wins Reelection in '04
Published January 07, 2004
Love him, hate him, serve him straight or on the rocks, come hell or high water the mumbling cowboy will be with us until January '09 - plan accordingly:
- A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll Friday through Monday shows that Bush's courting of conservative Republicans and the brightening picture for economic growth and the stock market are delivering two advantages that his father didn't have. Now, Bush has the approval of a 54% majority for his handling of the economy - a signature reading of a president's political health - and a committed core of supporters.
At the moment, among likely voters he defeats Democratic front-runner Howard Dean 59% to 37%. Against an unnamed Democrat, he wins 55% to 38%.
....by key measures of the economy and the polls, Bush is in a stronger position at this point than President Clinton (news - web sites) in 1996, who won a second term, and the elder Bush in 1992 and President Carter in 1980, who lost. Bush's situation is competitive with that of President Reagan in 1984, who won 49 states. Since World War II and the advent of modern polling, no president with high approval ratings on the economy and an optimistic public at the beginning of the election year has lost his bid for re-election.
"From a historical perspective, we're in a pretty good position ... which gives us a good feeling about where things are heading in this election," says Matthew Dowd, a Bush strategist.
....Bush is strong:
-His approval ratings are healthy and improving. Six in ten Americans say they approve of the job Bush is doing. That's higher than the approval ratings Clinton, Carter, Reagan or the elder Bush had at this point. Bush's approval rating on handling Iraq has risen 11 points in a month, to 61%.
His rating on the economy is up 6 points. His 54% approval rating on the economy contrasts with a 24% rating for his father one year before the 1992 election.
-His supporters are committed. By 55%-38%, likely voters say they're inclined to support Bush over the Democratic nominee, Bush's strongest showing since the spring of 2002. Most of his supporters say they won't change their minds; 45% say they're sure to vote for him. Democratic support is softer; 27% say they will support the party's nominee.
The elder Bush was undercut by his lack of solid support among his party's conservative base. In January 1992, just 27% of those surveyed said they were sure to vote for him.
-The public is optimistic about the future. By 55%-43%, those surveyed said they were satisfied with the direction the country was going, one of the most reliable indicators of how a president will fare in an election. That's a higher level of public satisfaction than Clinton, Carter, Reagan or the first President Bush could claim at this point in their terms.
-Most of the Democratic contenders aren't viewed favorably, at least not yet. Bush is viewed favorably by nearly 2-to-1, 65% to 35%. But Dean has a net negative rating, with 28% viewing him favorably, 39% unfavorably. Of the Democrats, only retired Army general Wesley Clark has a net favorable rating of more than one point. His rating was 37% favorable, 26% unfavorable. [USA Today]
- Bush Wins Reelection in '04
- Published: January 07, 2004
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- Section: Politics
- Filed Under: Culture: Media
- Writer: Eric Olsen
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Bush all the way. The alternative is too scary. Dean is a nutjob.
Rather confident statement on the day Bush gives up ten million jobs to illegal aliens. If he expects this to work he'd better grant them the vote too.
How does legalizing jobs that they already hold constitute giving up jobs?
Because if we enforced our immigration laws and actually kicked them out of the country, those jobs would be there for Americans. By letting the aliens stay, we're essentially saying, "Okay, you can have them."
Not that we want those jobs. It just seems like it could look bad if unemployment doesn't improve.
most of those jobs we do not want.
there are tons of illegals working in the fruit/vegetable industries...and they're doing the work because americans won't take the jobs.
should this practice continue? it's a tricky issue.
One could argue those jobs are for our teenagers. Builds character, you know. And we could always use more character(s).
you could argue that....check out the book Reefer Madness.
what i got out of that was that nobody wants those jobs.
The only downside will be if they try all these guys together. I'd rather see separate trials. In fact, I think I'll start selling tickets to the Perle one. If I buy a hundred tickets at $100 in advance on Ticketron, I can probably sell them for at least a $1,000 a pop later on. Make a nice profit for myself.
what i got out of that was that nobody wants those jobs.
Well of course the teenagers don't want those jobs. But they do want cars. If parents wouldn't be so stupid as to just give them the cars, maybe we could get the teenagers to do those jobs. ;-)
no kiddin'! i won't argue with that! kids were i live work at place like the grocery store and act as if they're being forced to plow a field by hand or something.
Head to head matchups don't mean anything right now and positive/negative ratings for the Dems don't mean anything now.
Many people only know Howard Dean as someone they sometimes see on the cover of newsmagazines in the checkout ailse or on tv. And nobody has even voted yet, so someone else could get the nomination.
Bush will probably win. He's the incumbant and he is raising an obscene ammount of money to spend in primaries where he has no challenger (where's Pat Buchanan when you need him?).
But the election will be close. It will be all about turnout and while the GOP has remembered that there is more to politics than tv ads, many Dems realize that voter registration and get out the vote for the many people who don't participate will be just as important as swing voters.
Daily Kos has lots of material hashing over this in endless detail.
Y'know this reminds me of the time I bought that Specials single, and had to take it back to the shop because it didn't contain the free nelson mandela.
What is it going to take for regime change in the States? International sanctions? An economic embargo? Ridicule? Oh, wait, you're doing that all on your own bad self.
Really, just dump monkey-boy, get a real adult in charge, and stop being so stupid. Just stop it.
Hey, that's our monkey-boy you're talking about there, Canuck!
And we like him just fine.
In fact, come November, we're going to let him go play on his monkey ranch for a long, long time.
Great, but there's still a LONG way to go with this one.
Anyone who has looked for a job in the past 4 years knows America has gone down the tubes. There are no middle class jobs. Our President doesn't care. Bush has been too busy making money for himself and the companies he is tied to. Irag was about money and oil. 4 more years of Bush and we will be living The Great Depression Part 2.
while i don't think that iraq was about money and oil (too obvious, even for the current administration)...i do think that they've got to be getting a little worried about the economy.
i mean, you can turn "higher productivity, higher corporate profits" into a mantra...but so far it's translating into almost no new jobs.
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(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/11522)
But he won't survive his second term. The corruption is so staggering that he'll be forced out.