WMD Myths
Published November 29, 2003
Myth: We overcompensated for having underestimated the WMD threat in 1991. The NIE noted that we had underestimated key aspects of Saddam Hussein's WMD efforts in the 1990s. We were not alone in that regard: the U.N. Special Commission missed Iraq's biological weapons program and the International Atomic Energy Agency underestimated Baghdad's progress on nuclear weapons development. In no case however, were any of the judgments "hyped" to compensate for earlier underestimates.
Myth: We mistook rapid mobilization programs for actual weapons. Even with "only" rapid mobilization capabilities, Hussein would have been able to produce and stockpile such weapons in the run-up to a crisis, with little risk of being caught. There is practically no difference in threat between the two.
Myth: The NIE asserted that there were large WMD stockpiles and because we haven't found them, then Baghdad had no WMD. We judged that Iraq probably possessed 100 to 500 metric tons of CW munitions fill. One hundred metric tons would fit in a back yard swimming pool; five hundred could be hidden in a small warehouse. We made no assessment of the size of Iraq's biological weapons holdings, but a biological weapon can be carried in a small container. Lastly, despite considerable progress the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) is a long way from finishing its work.
We do not know whether the ISG ultimately will be able to find physical evidence of Iraq's chemical and biological weapons or learn the status of its WMD programs and its nuclear ambitions. Regime-directed destruction of evidence pertaining to WMD already has affected the ISG's work. Iraqis who have been willing to talk to U.S. intelligence officers are in great danger; some have been killed. And finally, finding physically small but extraordinarily lethal weapons in a country that is larger than the state of California would be a daunting task even under far more hospitable circumstances. [Washington Post] Please let this sink in: the WMD argument for going to war in Iraq absolutely holds - it has not been discredited. It was a prudent move, it was an appropriate part of the War on Terror, it is central to reconfiguring the Middle East.
- WMD Myths
- Published: November 29, 2003
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- Section: Politics
- Writer: Eric Olsen
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So some guy who's butt is on the line for being such a tool says it's a myth and you believe him.
Let's remember, shall we, that the NIE was produce only after the decision to go to war was made - in the opposite order it is supposed to be don - and only after repeated and plaintive requests by Senators for this necessary document.
Not exactly a foundation of strength on which Cohen can base his arguments on.
Yeah... I agree. we should just put our intelligence on a readily accessible website so that everyone can feel much better.
The central point is this: it has become received wisdom that the administration rigged or ignored the intelligence community regarding Iraq, and that there weren't and aren't any WMD in Iraq - it's all a White House plot.
This is a bracing statement from someone directly involved that none of that is true.
This is all proof that hatred can be seriously blinding. Bush hasn't done everything perfectly. He (along with every other politician ever) has used hyperbole to make his points and sway opinions. Is he a liar? Let's not go that far. Was it absolutely necessary to go to war? It depends on your definition of imminent and threat. It was a foreign policy decision and I don't think anyone can say whether it was right or wrong. It was a decision and it will only serve to create more decisions further down the line.
People need to stop acting like the whole thing is cut and dry. There is no right answer, just different choices.
For the most part, that is a very wise statement, Craig.
I like that statement too Craig. Uh... can I borrow that?
If you find it worthy of borrowing, I am flattered. Go for it.
Wow. Here I thought we had a constitutional process, international law, and many decades of intelligence analysis and vetting processes.
Learn something new every day.
the CIA may not have been fooled by the niger forgeries, but said forgeries were still allowed to circulate as "evidence" at high levels of government (and earlier in England too, where to begin with Blair somehow missed the telltales signs, such as one of the ministers' names appearing on the documents actually being a minister who had not been in power for several years)
Considering the intelligence capablities the US has at its disposal (here i mean technology like its satlellites) i am amazed that they have not thus far been able to track down any wmd or even convincing evidence that such exists. The most they came up with so far was some biological agents that were developments on those we sold them over a decade ago, nothing that is a big threat due to its effectiveness (or lack thereof).
i will not say "iraq definitely did not have wmds" but i am highly skeptical it was anywhere near the level of threat the us and uk made it out to be.
Don't be too quick to overestimate our intelligence capabilities with regard to WMDs. In 1998, both India and Pakistan were able to actually detonate nuclear devices without us having any advance notice, basically catching the CIA flat on their collective ass. Additionally, look at the ambiguity surrounding the DPRKs program, a lot of speculation as to what the actual status is with few hard facts. Given these instances, perhaps our low risk tolerance with Iraq is more understandable.
Someone somewhere still believes there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Amazing! Proof that the Big Lie technique works.
Eric, why can't you accept that the leaders of the U.S. can be wrong? They were wrong about Vietnam (and most of the petty invasions since), and they are wrong now.
Big Lie technique? What do your results on the bar exam have to do with this discussion?
I absolutely accept that leaders can be, and are, wrong frequently. That's central to my point that it's not all about a Big Lie - it isn't either/or.
And I absolutely believe there are or were in the very recent past WMD in Iraq. Quoting above, what was estimated to exist would fit into one small warehouse and one swimming pool.
And rather obviously, given the current conditions in Iraq, people do not feel free to reveal all they know.
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/10530)
No Eric, if we haven't found them then I don't believe that they exist. Also unless I get a picture of Saddam and members of Al Qaeda having tea together I won't believe there is a link between them.