Economic boom grows
Published November 25, 2003
The latest third quarter GDP numbers are in, and they are impressive. The economy has grown a whopping 8.2%, much higher than the 7.3% previously reported. This is good news indeed for President Bush. Bad news for the Democratic establishment looking to unseat the President in the 2004 election.
From Foxnews.com
The 8.2 percent growth rate — more than double the 3.3 percent pace registered in the second quarter — represented the best showing since the first quarter of 1984, when the economy surged at a 9 percent pace. Economists were predicting third-quarter GDP would be revised up, with estimates ranging from a 7.3 percent pace to an 8 percent pace.
Near rock-bottom short-term interest rates and President Bush's third round of tax cuts motivated businesses and consumers to spend and invest more, helping the economy to move at such a fast clip in the third quarter, economists say. The next challenge is making sure the rebound is lasting.
Grasping at straws, liberal pundits will try to say that this is a jobless recovery, ignoring the fact that jobs are ALWAYS the lagging indicator for an economic recovery. It is true that we have had jobs lost; a lot of those were due to the recession worsened by September 11th, 2001. Now, many of those jobs are returning.
Right now the unemployment number is a respectable 6%. Compared to other western countries like Germany's 10.1% or 7.6% for Canada, the American worker is doing pretty well.
Six percent is very good, especially considering that full employment is generally considered between 5 and 6%, but generally around 5.5%. So though it is true that there are some Americans out of work who desire jobs, most American's who want jobs can find them.
This surge in the economy is mostly due to the cyclical nature of the nation's economy. The economy doesn't just plug along, it comes and goes in waves. But it is also due to the economic policies of President Bush. Across-the-board tax cuts enabled people to spend money, allowed businesses to invest in infrastructure, and provided more money to invest in stocks, bonds, and other investments.
Mostly though, this surge is due to people like you and me who work hard, pay the bills, and drive the economy. Continuing to do what we do will make sure this economic boom will continue. Put some money in stocks, buy a nice gift for your spouse, or take a vacation. American's continued hard work will enable this boom to last, and push us into economic growth for the next decade.
- Economic boom grows
- Published: November 25, 2003
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- Section: Politics
- Writer: Tom Bux
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Hal's cautionary note is well taken. Also, note that while unemployment is pretty low, a good portion of that may involve signifcant underemployment. Someone with a college degree working at a gas station is not unemployed, but they're not making much of a living.
Still, even with caveats, 7 or 8% GDP growth KICKS ASS. It's really difficult to imagine this as anything but a HUGE plus to the president and Republicans in general- whether they really deserve it or not.
Also, note that the GDP includes both private and government spending. In this stellar quarter, government spending was only measured to be up something like 1.3%- meaning that the private GDP [ie the actual productive part] was up even more than it looks.
It's looking a bit better today:
The Commerce Department reported that new orders for durable goods rose by 3.3 percent in October, up from a 2.1 percent gain in the previous month. October's reading handily surpassed analysts' estimates of a 0.7 percent rise; it was also the best showing since July 2002.
Meanwhile, consumer spending was steady in October and people's incomes grew by a solid 0.4 percent, the department said separately. The readings matched economists' predictions and the increase in income offered hope that spending might continue to be strong.
And new jobless claims last week declined by a seasonally adjusted 11,000 to 351,000. It was the lowest level since January 2001.
I deeply hope this proves to be true, we can all function better in a flush environment.
Or rather, IF.
And remember, not all unemployed people receive jobless benefits. I do not trust those figures for that very reason.
Presidents always take more credit and blame than they deserve for the economy. I don't remember Clinton giving back any credit during the Internet boom when this country had a completely new crop of millionaires running around. Bush doesn't deserve much blame for the economy after September 11th and assuming we have a recovery, he won't deserve too much credit for it.
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I'm afraid it's not a boom.
The GDP is not the economy. That just means more stuff got sold. The stock market is not the economy, either. That's just an indication that the stockholders of the companies doing the selling are getting higher prices because of higher sales (very roughly).
Given that, this could be the start of a boom, but calling it one now is like Richard Perle saying, on May3, 2003, the day after the "Mission Accomplished" banner: "From start to finish, President Bush has led the United States and its coalition partners to the most important military victory since World War II. This was a war worth fighting. It ended without the Arab world rising up against us, as the war's critics feared, without the quagmire they predicted, without the heavy losses in house-to-house fighting they warned us to expect."
Some words come back to haunt you.