Living the Theory

Written by Eric Olsen
Published October 15, 2003

There are all kinds of theories about the next business model for the music industry, most involving a combination of increased emphasis on live performance and much more widespread use of free digital sampling of music as a promotional device. Here is a guy who is living it:

    Every two weeks or so, I pack up my Taylor acoustic guitar, fill my backpack with CDs of my music, and head down into the New York City subways to busk away. I make good money, and I get to watch and study people, too. For example, I can now tell from about 50 feet away whether a woman is likely to give me money.
    If she's walking fast, wearing headphones, angrily porting a briefcase, or chasing down one of her children, that's an easy no. She wouldn't throw a dime into Jimi Hendrix's case. Other women, who are more aware of their surroundings, have greater possibility. Usually it boils down to makeup and midriffs. If the woman is decked out, she may look at me, but only to see if I'm looking at her. But if a woman is dressed casually, walking slowly, and thinking about something beside herself, she's likely to listen for at least a few moments, and then I have a decent chance she'll enjoy the music, stop, and maybe buy an album.

    This is but one of the lessons I've learned from performing in train stations that I think could be helpful to the floundering music industry, or at least to the many talented musicians stifled by it.

    ....Whatever the reason, it's clear that the music industry's old model of doing business isn't working so well in today's market. That old model relied on labels plucking out a handful of bands they believed would sell big, and investing millions of dollars in production, promotion, and marketing to get them the time on the radio dial or the space in the record stores they required to catch fire. The industry defended itself against complaints by saying they were simply meeting the demands of popular taste.

    In truth, there was always a tautological element to this argument. The music industry functions like a cartel, and the public's preferences have always been limited by the choices they were given. Now that the market for music has changed, and CD sales are declining, the record industry is hiring lawyers and lobbyists to squelch the new technologies that are changing the music business.

    ....When I first started playing in the subways, I experimented with different prices for my albums: $2, $5, $8, $10. I sold slightly more CDs at $2, but far fewer at $8 or $10. The sweet spot seemed to be a price of $5. ... This could merely be the measure of what my music is worth. But my strong sense is that five dollars is what people will pay for a CD they like by a musician that they've never heard of.

    ....One might think that my only audience would be the Birkenstock nature-lovers and 14-year-old kids porting around their first guitars--and I do do well with that crowd. But I also do well with middle-aged black couples, 40-year-old white couples with kids, white blue-collar workers, and the Ecuadorian immigrants who sell jewelry in my favorite station. In fact, I have a much better chance of telling whether someone will like the music based on the way that they walk than based on their age, sex, or apparent income.

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Career media professional Eric Olsen is honored to be the founder and publisher of Blogcritics.org, which, quite frankly, rules - as do his wife and four children.
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Living the Theory
Published: October 15, 2003
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Section: Sci/Tech
Filed Under: Music: News, Sci/Tech: Internet
Writer: Eric Olsen
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Comments

#1 — October 15, 2003 @ 10:17AM — Craig Lyndall [URL]

First of all won't this future kill radio as it stands today? I am definitely not saying that is a bad thing because radio has become very repetitive and boring, but I think it is obvious to see that this is the first thing to go.

Second, when these supergroups aren't getting huge signing bonuses and things, who are we going to put on Cribs? If Tommy Lee doesn't have a Starbucks in his basement, a mirror on his ceiling and a raving room, how are we going to spend 15 minutes virtually touring his house on MTV? And if the rappers don't have 12 cars, a ridiculous pool and a yacht, what the hell are we going to watch?

It's a sacrifice, but I guess I will just have to deal with it. :-)

#2 — October 15, 2003 @ 10:41AM — Eric Olsen

Actually since radio is already so narrow and niche-oriented, I don't see them having to change all that much. Perhaps the "novelty" of eclecticism - as in the original Top 40 of the '60s - will come to hold more appeal: when you can get all the niches you want, the "best-of" each genre might interest more people.

#3 — October 15, 2003 @ 11:40AM — frost@work

Craig: if you look around a while online you might be able to come across some hard figures about how much artists make from CD sales. I remember seeing some figures from Britney Spears annual income last year. Although her albums went multi-platnium (a VERY rare feat) she only netted a couple million from that. The real money for artists is in concerts. That where you can sell CD's that you bought from the record co. for $5 and turn around and sell them for $8-$10. A shirt that costs you $8 goes for $15. Instant money that can't be rearranged by record companies 'new math'.

#4 — October 15, 2003 @ 14:56PM — TDavid [URL]

I like the ability to choose my own playlists and some online music services make this convenient (IE. Rhapsody). Radio will always be around for sports and talk radio, but for music the only benefit is in more niche oriented programming.

And commercials do work in talk radio and sports. We do well with advertising for the Mariners and the Seahawks. But forget it with music. It's too intrusive, I think.

#5 — October 15, 2003 @ 15:26PM — The Theory

I appriciate the fact that out of respect for YOURS TRUELY, EO did not capitolize the "the" in this article's title. Gracias.

#6 — October 15, 2003 @ 15:29PM — TDavid [URL]

Dead The Theory could be an intriguing title of a story or book. Hope it's not biographical though.

#7 — October 15, 2003 @ 15:45PM — Albatross

if cd sales go down i think concert prices will go up. that stinks. but then again alll that money evens out doesn't it. and you can always try sneaking into things. it's not so hard sometimes. yeah. top music people make too much money anyway. fuck em.

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