With a "tip 'o the envelope" to Bill Murray (in the salad days of SNL), here are MY Oscar Picks...

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Chris Cooper; Ed Harris; Paul Newman; John C. Reilly; Christopher Walken.

The key word here is "supporting" so, like, who cares? Using my "Random Winner Generator" program, my pick is... Christopher Walken.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kathy Bates; Julianne Moore; Queen Latifah; Meryl Streep; Catherine Zeta-Jones.

Again, it's supporting. And they're chicks. So, no random generator this time. Instead, I'll use a highly scientific method to pick the winner: If I clear my mind, and think of all five nominees, who do I picture buck naked first? And the winner is... Julianne Moore.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Adrien Brody ("The Pianist"): while first-time nominees sometimes pull off an upset (remember Bette Midler in "The Rose"?), Brody has a few things working against him that Midler didn't. First, the albatross of "Annie McGuire", the heavy-handed and oh-so disappointing Mary Tyler Moore TV series, on which Brody co-starred. It was thankfully cancelled after just six episodes in 1988, but Academy members have long memories. Plus, in a recent interview, Brody said he'd much rather be making music. That techno-rap stuff that members just don't understand. Yo, maybe next time, Adrien!

Nicolas Cage ("Adaptation"): Cage plays twin brothers who are both screenwriters. Cage sure loves those duel roles. I think I saw the 'action-adventure' version of this one a few years ago, back when it was called "Face-Off." Historically, Hollywood loves movies set in and about Tinsel Town. Remember "The Player" and "LA Confidential"? The more self-referential and less understood by anybody outside Hollywood the better. I think I smell Oscar!

Michael Caine ("The Quiet American"): Frankly, I'm surprised Caine had the guts to even show his face in Hollywood, much less appear in every third movie released, after making that early-80s turkey "Jaws IV". Or maybe it was "Jaws V". You know, the one with the really angry shark in it. Whichever one of the two that was.

Daniel Day-Lewis ("Gangs of New York"): You might remember this actor as the 1989 Oscar Winner for "My Left Foot", in which he portrayed a severely physically handicapped man. That'll hurt him this year. Sorry, Daniel, but if 'ya ain't playing crippled 'ya ain't gonna win again.