With all those categories, shouldn't the nominations and awards provide an accurate reflection of the past year's music? (Officially, it's the year from Oct. 1, 2001, to Sept. 30, 2002.) That's the idea, but it ain't necessarily so. The Grammys have a gift for embarrassing oversights. This year, two major producers — the Neptunes, who had hits all over the pop, R & B and hip-hop Top 10, and Linda Perry, who's forging a new confessional pop with Pink's best-selling album "Missundaztood" and Christina Aguilera's "Stripped" — weren't nominated, simply because no one sent in applications for them.

Although the Grammys are back in New York, neither the best new artist nominations nor the rock categories noticed the Strokes, who are leading a New York rock renaissance. Although the Strokes' album was released in September 2001, just before this year's deadline, singles would have been eligible. (The best new artist nominees do include Michelle Branch, whose debut album came out in August 2001.)

When it comes to choosing winners, the Grammys often back away from the show of rebellion, sex and youthful energy that the music business spends the rest of the year marketing. No wonder the show gets unimpressive ratings. Meanwhile, predicting the awards tends to be an exercise in perverse calculation.

The Grammy voters, who qualify to vote by amassing credits on six tracks, have historically shown a penchant for ballads over rockers, professionalism over punch, familiar names over newcomers, old songs over new ones. Movie connections also seem to help. Last year's big winner, the soundtrack to "O Brother, Where Art Thou?," was not only made for a film; it had by far the oldest songs: traditional ones.

This year, the top awards are likely to split between youth and experience. The experienced side belongs to Bruce Springsteen's song and album "The Rising," his heartfelt attempt to come to terms with the aftermath of Sept. 11. Nominated for album of the year, "The Rising" seems weightier and worthier than Eminem's sour "The Eminem Show," the Dixie Chicks' smart string-band anachronism, "Home," Nelly's party-rap album "Nellyville" and Norah Jones's album of old and new torch songs, "Come Away With Me."