DK Matai, Chairman and CEO of mi2g, on the unintended global consequences of the war with Iraq re cyberspace:

"Disaffected groups are beginning to acquire the means to execute asymmetric attacks on the West through CBRN-DS means blended with conventional physical attacks. Whilst we may think in the local context, it is becoming apparent that radicals are thinking in global terms and range from one-man operations, like the Shoe Bomber, to larger and more diffuse terrorist groups that are trans-national."

"There is growing concern about 'Command and Control' digital attacks, which would impact the critical national infrastructure such as: financial services, telecommunications, electricity production and distribution, water storage and distribution, nuclear power plants and gas facilities. This would require extensive insider help and there is evidence to suggest that insiders have already been discovered in some cases who were planted on a long-term basis."

"In recent months, information about critical infrastructure has been ferreted via the Internet and scanning of critical infrastructure components has become more frequent; this has been traced back to IP addresses in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Pakistan and Indonesia."

"Sophisticated computer programs used by engineers to find stress points and weaknesses in buildings, bridges and dams had also been found at the tail end of 2001 and early 2002 in computers belonging to suspected Al-Qaeda members in Kabul, Afghanistan. So even if the ability of a terrorist organisation to conduct direct attacks against critical infrastructure is limited, digital attacks can be used as a highly effective reconnaissance tool to enable more effective physical attacks."

"Especially when considering digital attacks, it is unlikely that governments will choose to remain oblivious to such assaults on their citizens and their livelihoods given the economic damage being caused. Successful overt digital attacks - as opposed to scans, attempts or covert attacks - are predicted to follow the trend, albeit more slowly, established over the last seven years and could number between 120,000 and 140,000 worldwide in 2003. Blended attacks - physical attacks synchronised with digital attacks - could materialize in the coming two years. Although new viruses and worms released in 2003 may reduce, the damage caused by a few killer viruses or worms - some politically motivated - will remain in Billions of Dollars."

"If the war with Iraq in early 2003 materialises, USA will remain one of the most attacked countries digitally followed by other NATO member countries and allies. Successful and verifiable attacks against the US are likely to be between 80,000 and 100,000 in 2003."

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