Four reasons why Jesse Ventura's MSNBC show will be a hit, and four reasons why it won't

By Stephen Silver

It was announced last week that former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura has reached a deal to host a nightly talk show on MSNBC. Here are four reasons why Ventura's show will be successful, and four reasons why it will not:

Pro: Cable news shows these days rise and fall on the personality of the host- and Ventura's greatest strength throughout his career (whether in wrestling, radio, or politics) has been his unique, iconoclastic, and unpredictable personality.

Con: But that's a personality of which Minnesota voters quickly tired, which is the biggest reason why he declined to seek re-election rather than face near-certain defeat; the same is certain to eventually happen at the national level. And what about Ventura's frequent off-the-cuff, anti-PC comments? Is MSNBC prepared to fight an advertising boycott each time Jesse insults the Irish, or another ethnic group?

Pro: While the failure of Phil Donahue's show on the network proves that there's next to no viewer demand for left-wing ideology on cable news talk shows, Ventura's brand of centrist, anti-establishment, libertarian politics may very well strike a chord with news junkies sick of both the left-leaning mainstream and Fox's conservative slant, those who are eager to hear thought-provoking arguments not normally put forth in the medium.

Con: There's no evidence that such viewers exist in any significant number. If Fox's success has proven anything, it's that the members of the cable news talk show audience aren't interested in "learning" or in "questioning things"- they're there to hear their own beliefs barked back at them. And liberals don't fit into this equation, since they've already shown that they'd rather watch "The West Wing" (or, for that matter, "Joe Millionaire") than CNN. Fox News has done an able job in filling the demand for hostile right-wing programming (as best exemplified by Bill O'Reilly's brand of not-so-compassionate conservatism) which, once again, simply isn't there for either left-wing or centrist material. Exhibit A for the latter is center-dwelling "Hardball" host Chris Matthews who, despite hosting a show that's as well-known as anything on Fox, gets clobberred nightly in the ratings by the FNC "debate" show that's hosted by Sean Hannity and his prison bitch, Alan Colmes. Since "Hardball" is anything but a pure ideological organ (and at least partially due to Matthews' anti-war stance), it's fallen way behind "Hannity & Colmes"- and Ventura is due to take over Matthews' timeslot.

Pro: But at least a small measure of O'Reilly's success has come from the host's toughness, stubbornness, and mean-spiritedness. Ventura's got a well-known propensity for all three, on top of the sort of physical presence that's bound to intimidate guests into telling the truth. Besides, there are tons of guests who it would make logical sense to see Jesse interview, from future political star Arnold Schwarzneggar to Vince McMahon to new Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.