Who should win: Paul Newman.

Dark Horse: John C. Reilly — he's been a great character/supporting actor in a bunch of movies for years now. If anybody beats Paul, I'd say it'd be John.

Who should win but wasn't nominated: Irrelevent — Paul Newman should win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Meryl Streep — A lot of people in Hollywood loved Meryl Streep, and a lot of people loved Adaptation. It's in the bag for Meryl.

Who should win: Queen Latifah — Just because.

Dark Horse: Kathy Bates — again, not her best performance, but a lot of people liked About Schmidt and a lot of people like Kathy Bates.

Who should win but wasn't nominated: Rosemary Harris from Spider-Man — right, like the Academy would ever nominate anyone from Spider-Man. But Harris' performance as Aunt May was grounded and believable, and added a heart to the movie.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Martin Scorcese — Gangs of New York was far from his best movie, but he'll get it because people from the Academy think he's due for one.

Who should win: Rob Marshall — Let's see you make a musical that is both critically acclaimed and does well at the box office. It's a rare feat and ought to be rewarded.

Dark Horse: Roman Polanski — He's respected and well known, and The Pianist was a better movie than Gangs of New York.

Who should win but wasn't nominated: Sam Mendes for Road to Perdition. He coaxed some brilliant actors (Tom Hanks, Paul Newman, and Jude Law, to name a few) to incredible heights of acting. And he had the audacity to create something that you don't see much in Hollywood--a realistic world where glass cuts, bullets go through walls, and getting shot isn't something you can just shrug off.