Well, the Oscar nominations are up. So here are my picks for the main categories.

BEST PICTURE
What will win: Chicago — The Academy loves those musicals, and Chicago is recent, has some big stars taking risks, and has done some good box office trade.

What should win: The Lord of the Rings: Two Towers — But it won't, because it's the middle part of a trilogy.

Dark Horse: The Pianist — The Pianist might end up taking everyone by surprise. It's Roman Polanski's big comeback, has gotten a lot of good praise, and it's about the Holocaust (which the Academy is a sucker for).

What should win but wasn't nominated: Road to Perdition - It was the best movie of 2002 and got screwed big time in the nominations.

BEST ACTOR
Who will win: Jack Nicholson — It wasn't his best performance, in my opinion, but a lot of people loved him for this role, and a lot of people love Jack, so I'd say it's a shoe-in.

Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis — He's the only thing that made Gangs of New York worth watching.

Dark Horse: Daniel Day-Lewis — Dark horse because sometimes the nomination that deserves to win actually wins.

Who should win but wasn't nominated: Al Pacino in Insomnia — one of the best performances of his career, and the first role in a long time that he wasn't hamming it up.

BEST ACTRESS
Who will win: Nicole Kidman — everyone thinks she took a big risk making herself look "homely" as Virginia Woolf. I didn't catch The Hours, though.

Who should win: Renee Zellweger — she's a good actress and looked like she was having a lot of fun with her role.

Dark Horse: Salma Hayek — Salma Hayek took a lot of risks to get Frida made, and occasionally the Academy awards efforts like that, even if the performance is lacking.

Who should win but wasn't nominated: I don't really have an answer here--most of the best actressing jobs this year were in supporting roles.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: Paul Newman — his performance in Road to Perdition was great--one of the best of his career. And he's nearing the twilight of his days, so people will want him to get an Oscar on the way out.