Assume the US smashes the terrorists and then pulls back to our shores in disgust at the harrasment of our "allies". Does that actually mean the end of the American Era? I don't think so because Europe won't fill the void and regional players would fight amungst themselves. Shit might hit the fan but Uncle Sam would still be standing tall despite our lack of foreign involvement.

This fellow defines the American era as if the US wants an empire. He couldn't be more wrong. Folks in the US can't find countries no the map BECAUSE WE DON'T CARE. We left those little countries behind and they KEEP DRAGGING US BACK IN. American greatness is not defined by the number of wars we fight, but by the standard of living and influence we enjoy.

I am sure there are a lot of parents out there that must feel very comforted that their tuition dollars help pay for the tenure of idiots. Once again, we get a polytechnic display of how a degree and an exalted university position certainly don't equal intelligence. And I agree with you, Eric. As has been seen by so many "academics" over the past year, not one of them is willing to back up their fantasies with facts or explanations.

Thanks guys, I appreciate the support.

I remember reading this essay in a bookstore (what, I'm supposed to PAY for it??) and wondering what planet this guy is on.

Are there any Yanks out there that would in a strange way WELCOME an alliance against us, as long as it was even remotely civilized? (As opposed to Al Queda nutcases)

I mean, wouldn't you at least respect such an alliance? Oh, my, some people are actually TAKING INITIATIVE, are deciding that, as they don't like us, therefore we are NOT the cause, solution, be all, end all, of every problem, isssue, or concern they might have.

Maybe I'm being simplesme, but in a way I'm saying "Hey, give us a run for our money! Make things happen WITHOUT us!" But no, other than nihilistic death worshiping fruitcakes, the only competition we have depends on us economically or militarily or both.

Atlas might get tired, and if the looters keep relentlessly popping off and supporting our enemies, Atlas may indeed shrug.

And good luck with all that, world.

Well he was a Clinton administration NSC official; making Europe safe for Al Queda
in Bosnia & Kosovo

Ruprect is onto something.

For a Supra-Genius, Kaplan is intellectually confused. On the one hand he says we're either going to go for a "lite" Empire or a "hard" Empire.

Then at the end he says we're going to pull up the drawbridge and "Come Home, America" (Pat Buchanan, Eugene McCarthy, phone your publicists).

So, which is it, doc? You can't have it both ways. Except in a Salon interview, I suppose. Those people are as clueless as he is, and frequently blinded by academic credenza.

Ruprect is onto something.

For a Supra-Genius, Kaplan is intellectually confused. On the one hand he says we're either going to go for a "lite" Empire or a "hard" Empire.

Then at the end he says we're going to pull up the drawbridge and "Come Home, America" (Pat Buchanan, Eugene McCarthy, phone your publicists).

So, which is it, doc? You can't have it both ways. Except in a Salon interview, I suppose. Those people are as clueless as he is, and frequently blinded by academic credenza.

Plus, Kupchan is ten years or so behind the times. Less Through (aka Lester Thurow) said in '93 that the 'House of Europe' was going to predominate. We know how that worked out.

"Supra-Genius Kupchan", even.

Andrew X, your pitch was in the strike zone. I, too, wouldn't mind a bit if some other civilized countries or federations showed some class. Just as Japanese cars improved transportation for everyone, I wish modern Europeans would make some decent movies or write some good books or create a few million jobs or produce some brilliant music or have some universities that would actually draw hotshots from the USA. I wish that language cultures other than English would be so vibrant and flourishing that other people would want to join them, learn and speak their languages, marry into their populations, assimilate into their socities. All this would be great. Americans (and other English speakers) would be better off as a result. Competition is good.

The trouble here on the third rock is that there isn't enough competition. Europe is tired and ossified, the Russians are convalescent after 70 years of totalitarianism, the Muslim societies are a nightmare, the Chinese have made great material but little intellectual progress, Latin America is still mired in corruption, and Africa doesn't exactly have other people beating down the doors to live there. It's USA #1 not just because of American excellence but because almost everybody else sucks -- and it looks like the gap will widen. This is in no way a triumphalist rant, since I'm a Canadian, not an American. It's just an observation of the facts.

Hi y'all

As an expat suffering along in Germany, let me tell you that Kupchan is an excellent representative of European intellectual views.

Which is why he is as clueless as they are. The major flaw - shucks, there are so many - is demograhics: the open-air museums collectivly called Europe holds an aging population that is incapable of change.

EU as a challenger to the US? When they can't even build new fighters? When they decide to cancel buying adequate missile loads for them? Where they order new APCs with faulty steering/brake systems that the troops don't want to even get into, since they've seen the accidents? GMAHFB.

Clueless...

Excellent points and ammo all - I see I have tapped into something. Is there anyone out there who agrees with anything Kupchan has to say? I'm also impressed that our friends outside the country see the situation perhaps even more starkly than we do.

I would have agreed with Kupchan between 1970 and 1980. America seemed to be sunk by the oil embargoes, Vietnam, and domestic divisions.

Unfortunately for Kupchan's argument, the past two decades have seen america's fortunes rise, and europes fortunes stagnate and decay.

Europe is "locked in" to its demise, institutionally. A rapidly aging population of staunch socialists who are allergic to hard work. A strong influx of muslim immigrants taking full advantage of generous welfare provisions and excellent, and otherwise unused, obstetrics wards.

Several things here (and keep in mind that I've only read your review, not the source):

I can agree with one notion of Kupcha's, namely that the future is one of widespread anti-Americanism, especially in (western) Europe; but such an attitude will be, as a practical matter, utterly impotent. I read recently that the US has created 57 million jobs in the past 30 years, while the EU zone created 5 million -- a majority of which were in the public sector. And the EU is not headed in the right direction. If anything, its economic policies are largely a matter of French and German trade unions strangling eastern-European competition in the cradle.
The gaps between our respective militaries are well-known; the only armed forces in the world which are in a class with the US are those of the UK (and, I suppose, man for man, the IDF). Over the next 15 years or so, this disparity will become grotesque. Think Mussolini attacking Ethiopian tribesmen with aircraft and machine guns, or German panzers attacking Polish cavalry. That's the future, and the US isn't going to be the side using muskets and horses.

Our present situation seems to me to have been well-anticipated by Strauss and Howe in GENERATIONS: an older Adaptive generation (exemplified by Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al) pursuing a methodical, bureaucratic approach, while younger Idealist and Reactive generations (which nearly all bloggers are members of) demand something more decisive, not to say apocalyptic. I regard our challenge as one of risk management. How do we clearly defeat the bad guys now, thereby avoiding an even worse conflict in another decade or two, while minimizing collateral damage to the world?

Eric

I doubt few persons in the blogosphere would agree with Kupchan -- they're too well-informed, for one.

Kupchan's cheerleading for the EU reminds me of the breathless enthusiasm among intellectuals for the Soviet Union back in the early 80's. Even as the Berlin Wall was coming down, the eggheads told us that the Great Gorbachev would lead the USSR into a new era (he did, just not the one they were hoping for).

Similarly, the Europe is entering a new phase in its history, just not the one that Kupchan is describing.

Eric,

You ask, "Is there anyone out there who agrees with anything Kupchan has to say?" I'll venture in on this even though I feel just as strongly as you do that he is wrong. But he is onto something even if it is for the wrong reasons.

I believe that most Americans would LIKE to make way for others to share in the leadership of the world. The problem now, as Chris points out, is that there is no entity ready willing and able to assume this role. As he put it, "almost everybody else sucks." He's right.

But one thing we should have learned over the last 20 years (really a very short period of time) is how quickly things can change in the world. As unlikely as it seems right now it is not totally unthinkable that a democratic and prosperous China may emerge someday. I am sure we love to see such a China assume some responsibilities in Asia.

Europe continues to fall further and further behind us economically, but it is no mystery as to why. It is not inconceivable that they will someday decide to do something about it.

If, fifty years from now, responsible, economically powerful countries or blocks of countries have emerged, I am sure the US would gladly make way for them to assume powerful world leadership roles.

Historians living in a future world where it is not always just the U.S. that is standing up for civilization, may look back and conclude this Kupchan guy was onto something.

More fine food for thought - thanks! I agree that we would love to be able to turn over at least some of our world policing/bankrolling/moral education duties, but the problem is we dont' seem to be able to trust anyone else to do them. Certainly things COULD change, and perhaps if the War on Terrorism is successful in the long run, that will help precipitate change.

Eric,

Couldn't resist a follow-up post even though I don't have a whole lot more to add - just some thoughts on why we have reason to be optimistic.

Fukuyama vs Huntington: who is right? Conservatives tend to come down on the side of Fukuyama, but sometimes miss the implications of him being right.

According to Fukuyama the world is a marketplace for ideas. The U.S. has come to dominate the world because "free markets, free people, and the rule of law" is the best damn idea out there. It produces the most dynamic and productive society, the most wealth, and thus the most power.

Over time (often a lot of time) the best ideas tend to get imitated. To some extent societies have no real choice - adopt the better ideas or fall further and further behind. There is obviously great resistance to change for cultural or religious reasons, but eventually like rain and wind eroding a large rock, that resistance melts away.

Whether it is Europe or the Middle East, what we see in the world today, the violent and visceral anti-Americanism, is a reaction from those that are resisting changes occurring all around them. It is a reaction from those that are LOSING the battle of ideas.

Unfortunately, this provides no comfort in the short term, but make no mistake we will win the war on terrorism. It might take a generation to do it, and we may experience another 9/11 or, God forbid, even worse, but we will win.

Mike, I basically agree with your cultural Darwinism, although I am amazed by people's capacity for perverse self-destruction, as rather perfectly symbolized by suicide bombers. But I also see a direction to history in the long run.

Ye're all a bunch o' limp-wristed poodle-walkers!

Now here's a real (Scotch) Man and he says:

It's all disinformation!

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Jeezus, jumped up christ on a pogo stick, can you look Shrub in the face and tell me he is telling any truth?

Jay: Its cool to see someone influenced by Howe & Straus. Their books are really thought-provoking (though even years and years after I've read them, I'm not sure they're right. Though I often notice things that support their theory).

Mike wrote:

As unlikely as it seems right now it is not totally unthinkable that
a democratic and prosperous China may emerge someday. I am sure
we love to see such a China assume some responsibilities in Asia.

Im more hopeful about India, actually, than China. Especially considering the historical differences (China has often been an expansionistic power, a conquerer and cultural bully whenever powerful. India has rarely been an expansionistic power, even when strong - indeed, at their strongest, India has often promoted peaceful relations with neighbors). India, for all its Caste-related issues, is, IMO, a more promising loci for Democratic Republicanism and the Rule of Law than China.

One of the things I've been hoping will come out of this whole mess, the silver-lining as it were, is closer relations between America and India, after a fairly long patch of coolness. That does seem to be happening, though slowly (largely impeded because of the Pakistan thing, but even that hasn't prevented closer ties, just slowed them down). It would be nice to have a real partner - as we have in Britain (however "small", Britain has a lot of influence and "clout" throughout the world).

China I'm not too optimistic about, *even* (especially?) as they grow in strength. India, on the other hand, could take a very significant role in the future - which will help counterbalance a growing China. We really should do all we can to try and foster better relations with India whenever possible. IMO.

Porphy wrote:
China has often been an expansionistic power, a conquerer and cultural bully whenever powerful.

OK, I know I am strongly influenced by living in Europe, but I was born in Texas and have a great deal of pride in my country--and these words are exactly how the US is described over here, and often with good reason. One man's "the world is a marketplace for ideas" is another man's "cultural bully".

I don't see the US as expansionist or conquering, and "cultural bully" would imply an effort to intimidate other cultures, which I also don't see. We just want to sell them stuff and not be attacked.

"Blinded by academic credenza?"

If the US falters, the likely replacement is China, rather than the sick men of the EU. Every single time China has been a regional hegemon, it has expanded its borders. As soon as the US leaves Asians to the Asians (by default this means the Chinese) - look for the kinds of wars that characterized Europe in the first half of the 20th century.

Was the Soviet Union a superpower because of its moral authority? Is China a superpower because of its moral authority? Is the Vatican a superpower because of its moral authority?

I'm a little lost on this moral authority thing.

Who decides if we have moral authority? China? Russia? Iraq? North Korea? Venezuela? Europe?

Or is it just us? And our money and power?

Eric, just because you don't see it does not mean it isn't there. Believe me, the people over here feel bullied when they see their culture being eroded by imports. Of course, others rejoice in it (Bulgaria comes to mind.) But a bully rarely considers itself a bully. Wal-Mart thought it was competing fairly with the Mom&Pop shops. Microsoft believes it plays on a level playing field.

I'm not saying there is much the US can or should do about the reception--just expect some resentment to develop when people are confronted with unwanted change and consider coming up with some strategies to deal with it before it grows into the next attack.

One of the many reason that Kupchan describes why the U.S will go back to an isolation state is arrogance or blindness ( isolationism is the total word for it ). Eric Olsen makes the same mistakes that many people do; He is blind for what will always happen: A change of econmic supremecy. The Euro is getting higher and higher, and will be more used as a world coin than the u.s dollar. The Oil companies are thinking weather to change to price per oil to euro's rather than dollars. Europe already is the biggest Export AND Import 'country'in the world. With a population much greater than the u.s, it's just a matter of time that Europe will claim the role of economic supremecy. The U.S will fall back just like the 20's and 30's only to get back as the worldpower years later. Power will always shift, wether it's will be Europe, U.S, maybe Russia and China or even Japan. There will always be a period of rise and fall.. it's just a fact from history. America's time as the world leader is coming to an end; with the EU trippling to take over ( 20 years maybe). By the way, the U.S military strength like it is now, will soon be declined. The U.S is already facing a HUGE gap within it's budget. The army expenses will go down some, and Europe's will go higher, until the break even point has been reached. Do you really think that the U.S will be so military strong, or that Europe will always be so military weak. No!!!! Just look back a hundred years ago.. When Europe was the mililtary strenght of the world. Military power too will shift, it's a dream and impossible to think that everything will be like now. It's hard to believe, especially for Americans. But over a 100 years or somewhat longer, the U.S will take over again and Europe get's back to it's second position. But until that time has come, Europe will be there shouting with a bigger voice than the U.S

this message is just a short note on what i think of some of your criticism.

John Opie, Europe HAS desinged it's own fighter. The Euro fighter. And many countries bought them, because of it's great peformance. Also ever heard of the Galileo project? The EU sattelite project? It's a project the U.S was afraid of, and it wanted Europe to stop it. Galileo is a whole new GPS sattelite system, with far more advanced options than the GPS system now. Also Mike Plaiss, you were talking about the EU getting futher and futher behind economically. Well ever watched the News? Ever watched the stock market. Well if you do, just compare the Euro to the dollar. The reason that the Euro is so high is that many shareholders sell their dollar and buy Euro's, because of the weak U.S economy. ANd the U.S is getting more depended on China. Just go to a shop and look what is from china. Almost everything!!! So America falls back more and more, while Europe with the Euro will rise as the economic power

i meant satellite no sattelite

Tom, thanks for your thoughts. I do not dispute the basic cyclical nature of history (within a larger forward-directed arrow), but I do question the capacity of Europe to surpass the U.S. economically (even as it presents a larger market - so does India and China) due to its socialism, and militarily it isn't even in the same universe. I do not sense that Europe has the will to do what it would take to surpass the U.S. militarily.

Re your answers to the comments of others: please note that the original post and the comments were written over a year ago and I don't know how many of those people are still around.

Eric,

I do not think that Europe is socialist. I think that the U.S is just far more conservative or right winged than Europe. Also if you want to know I am from Europe, The Netherlands to be precise. I lived in the U.S for over a year. ( 2002-2003) I do question the capacity of Europe to surpass the U.S military, but i do not question the capacity for Europe to surpass the U.S economically. As I said before, it's the lagerst im and export continent on the world. And with a lot of new countries being a coming member the capacity will only grow bigger.

Europe is much more socialist than the U.S. - all you have to do is look at taxes and how they are spent for social services. This can be argued to be good, bad or indifferent overall, but it definitely affects economies.

"I wish modern Europeans would make some decent movies or write some good books or create a few million jobs or produce some brilliant music or have some universities that would actually draw hotshots from the USA. I wish that language cultures other than English would be so vibrant and flourishing that other people would want to join them, learn and speak their languages, marry into their populations, assimilate into their socities."

Most ignorant bullshit I have heard thus-far. The fact that you don't known any good European films, or any great European musics or literature is because perhaps you head is so far up your behind "rah, rah, rah, Americans!" that nothing else ever gets a chance to come over.

If Britney Spears, Sex in the City, and XXX are part of the super power that is America, then that is pretty damn pathetic.

As far as language is concerned, Americans are so "yank-centric" that they are only required at most to take two years of a foreign language. Even more scary is that it seems your only other option for another language IS spanish. That doesn't really help one to try to understand European culture now, does it?

As far as Europe becoming an Economic superpower... well that is going to depend on if they can get over their differences in nationalities. If they can do that, with the way the US is doing things now, expect Europe to start kicking American butt there as well.

This all the Americans fault for sitting on their asses and resting on their laurels.

As far as schooling, there are some great German Engineering Universities but the reason why Americans cannot go to them is:

YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO PASS A GERMAN SPEAKING EXAM.

Which brings us back to the age old issue of not really teaching forgien languages in the US or if so, just SPANISH so you can order from McDonald's.

We don't teach our children to think globally, so why would we even notice if something is better in Europe. Believe it or not, there are a few things in Europe that are BETTER than the US just as there are some things in the US that are BETTER than Europe.

"Europe is much more socialist than the U.S. - all you have to do is look at taxes and how they are spent for social services."

And just think: soon middle class Americans will be paying HIGHER taxes for even FEWER social services, to pay for the bloated U.S. military, whose size is now approaching monstrous proportions.

Militaristic crony capitalism. It's the new America. But it's ok, because we're spreading democracy abroad!

I'm certain the last statement is true. The guy you were upbraiding is Canadian, though, and he wrote this over a year ago.

my statement was to Tek

I'm not too impressed with Canadians lately either. When I started to see the "ant-Americanism" coming from them (which surprised me), I take what they say with a grain of salt as well.

Still, Toronto is a nice city.

What's coming from Canada is not anti-Americanism. Most Canadians love American culture and society. What many of them hate is the U.S. government, which is illegitimate, militaristic, bloated, oligarchic, undemocratically elected, and just generally repulsive.

What do you get when you mix Homo Sapiens with Neanderthals? A European Union (tee hee hee)

Not to worry Eric. The only unifying factor the Euro Union has going for it is its common jealousy of America's might. If they were ever to surpass America there so-called union would quickly break down and start squabbling again, and again, and again...

As for the Soviets they are a wild card, and keeping one eye open in the back our collective heads would be good advice.

A word of warning. If America's might is based on its "moral authority" more than bombs then it must be forever vigilant to enure that it deserves that entitlement.

Canada? Eh? Former Prime Minister Chretien did not reflect the majority of Canadians. He was a carry over hack from Trudeau's anti-Americanism. Canadians and Americans are cousins in every sense of the word. It's just that Canada suffers from penis envy and you can't fault them for that!

"As for the Soviets they are a wild card, and keeping one eye open in the back our collective heads would be good advice."

This just in, Sherlock: The Soviet Union has gone out of business. What happened is that it had an overlarge military, too many overseas military commitments and a political elite awash in cronyism and self-dealing. Unlike the United States, which--oh, dear...........

MAC LETHAL

MAC LETHAL

Live from the working class trash bin
Where I'm surrounded by tax payers and soon-to-be has-beens
Where Afghanis in tents are in the past-tense
And black families are pissed on with harrassment
See everynight there's gun shots a couple streets from here
Where young Chris and both his brothers tuck and sleep in fear
Where runny streams of tears pour down they faces
The way they treat this shit gets on my nerve agents
Apparently my arrogance is feeling like the air against
the gate up at the cemetary in the sanitarium
The Aryans and all of the nefarious amulet wearin Libertarians is scared to
death tearin the hair again
American marriages wearin thin as parents prepare to carefully bury their
cherished kids in a garrison
Attackin full speed with torches in their chariots like
"Dont listen to Jay-Z that supports the terrorists!"
You gotta understand people Iraq is strong
They got 2 headed soldiers and secret magic bombs
And flying dragons that'll eat the stomachs out their victims
And magic wands that'll cripple cable television
Look Bush, there's a difference between change in regime and blowin half the
world off the face of the map
But if the Muslims got it right
I promise you Allah's gonna be pretty upset at you for that

[Chorus]
I never fought for a cause I did not believe in
Especially if the cause did not believe in me
So (Pow, Pow) would you pass me the ammo?
And hang me from my family tree
I never fought for a cause I did not believe in
Especially if the cause did not believe in me
So (Pow, Pow) would you pass me the ammo?
So I can shoot my t.v.

[Verse 2]
I'm feeling so disgruntled and aroused to pull it
To shoot a conservative with a liberal amount of bullets
This is America...we roll thick
Like natives traded their land and souls for casino chips
2,000 died for you to unite
Blood shot eyes and pissed because it ruined your flight
Taking silencers and screwin them tight durin the ride home
To smell the apple pie, green grass, and pinecones
A different type of threats upon the soccer-moms
It's blackness to the Sun's corona during Ramadan
David Koresh doesn't represent you blue-eyes
But Bin Laden started a sick perverted holocaust
My Muslim friends never acted like villains
But these yuppy women see em' and they grab their 5 children
'Cause Christ turned water to wine, but blood is thicker
What are you people representing with these bumper stickers?
A place where inner-city kids play reluctantly?
And, F.D.N.Y.'s the #1 clothing company?
And, the Presidential niece is sniffin all the drugs
But kids up in Rawanda shrug while eating water bugs
We all got a jug of brew cracked
In the Center of attention thinkin World Trade means shoot back
Genius Anglosaxons
That think if you move a million units overseas you go platinum
But nah go back to your reality show
You in the front row, just sit and let the casualties grow
And eventhough I pay these veterans respect
I won' pick a gun up and shoot and kill someone I've never even met
It's alright to the point their ain't shit left
Except a blizzard of ashes and radiated insects
You see these parents want these kids to enlist
'Til their kids are the ones who get murdered by this bullshit!

[Chorus]
I never fought for a cause I did not believe in
Especially if the cause did not believe in me
So (Pow, Pow) would you pass me the ammo?
And hang me from my family tree
I never fought for a cause I did not believe in
Especially if the cause did not believe in me
So (Pow, Pow) would you pass me the ammo?
So I can shoot my t.v.

I never fought for a cause I did not believe in
Especially if the cause did not believe in me
So (Pow, Pow) would you pass me the ammo?
And hang me from my family tree
I never fought for a cause I did not believe in
Especially if the cause did not believe in me
So (Pow, Pow) would you pass me the ammo?
So I can shoot my t.v.

The main problem with China is that it keeps falling apart from civil wars. If you look at China's history you will notice that all 5000+ years it has existed that civil war is always the true downfall of China itself. It's not the Huns that invade, it's not because it expands to much. It's because internal strife attacks and then something else takes advantage of its weakness. While it's true that China is an expansionist and it did explore most of the world (read 1421 by Gain Menzies), it didn't really conquer them like Europeans conquered new lands. If I were to compare their methods I would say the Europeans were much more deadlier when conquering lands then China. China usually just developed a tribute system. And the countries or civilizations that China interacted with got benefits (China's technologies and goods).

One thing is for certain however..China cannot keep up it's half communism, half democracy ways. It needs to either swing one way fully. I am hoping this way is Democracy. Or at least some form of it. But China is a superpower and its becoming a powerhouse thanks to America. My friends argue with me all the time that America can take China. Which I think is impossible. Then they're stupid enough to use nukes in the arguement. While it's true America does have enough nukes to take out the world several times, what benefit does that have? If the USA launched nukes at China then China would launch their nukes at the USA. Not to mention Americans heavily rely on China for their manufacturing capabilities. Heck not just America, I'm betting alot of places around the world rely on China for manufacturing of parts. This has given China the economic push and weakened some other countries (loss of jobs).

Victor, good points. I don't see the US and China fighting as they are too closely intertwined economically, as you mentioned. China needs us as a market, we need them to make things well, cheaply and as a growing market for our goods. By opening up the economy, it is likely that political openness will follow at its own pace.