Why the Telecos Should Be Allowed to Fail

Written by Eric Olsen
Published October 22, 2002
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Q: Are you saying that Verizon (or whoever) is going to go bankrupt?

A: No, we are not making predictions about particular companies. We are saying that there are structural problems with the telecommunications industry as a whole.

Q: What interests does your group represent?

A: We are in no way an organized group. Generally, we are "net heads" - Internet businesspeople, consultants and analysts - who believe that the future of telecommunications will inevitably be via the Internet. We think it better if we get there sooner rather than later.

Q: Why have some non-Americans signed?

A: Because the 'net erases borders, and because people from other countries benefit when progress occurs in the U.S. Metcalfe's Law states that the 'net gains value as the square of people attached to it. Reed's Law is stronger, N to the N. So if U.S. connections are impoverished, everybody all around the world loses. But more importantly, the U.S. has had the lead since the invention of the Internet, and everybody around the world has benefited — and there's a strong sentiment among the world's Netheads that this continue.

Q: We bailed out the airlines, why not the telcos?

A: The airlines were not undergoing industry restructuring. They did that 20 years ago — People Express, etc., was a response to the advent of the jet plane. Remember Eastern? Pan Am? Dozens of others?

And the jet was just a 10x, or maybe, liberally, a 100x over the DC-3. Now we do 10x every couple of years.

As David S. Isenberg pointed out at the Fiber to the Home Council Annual Meeting last week in New Orleans, if dial-up Internet is a one-lane road, and DSL is a freeway (with 1 lane to work and 8 lanes home), then one fiber — a single fiber lit at today's speeds would be a road with 25 million lanes. That road would be 57,000 miles across. You could wrap it around the world width-wise 1 and a half times. That one fiber could carry the busy hour traffic of 1600 towns with 100,000 phones each. If everybody in the U.S. had a telephone, then two fibers could handle the conventional telephony busy-hour traffic. We could handle the entire world's telephony on 40 or 50 fibers (assuming everybody in the world had a telephone). And you can get such a fiber to your home — an entire fiber, to be lit as fast as necessary — for $3000.

Q: But if we let the telcos go bankrupt, will there be any telephone service? Won't the communications infrastructure collapse?

A: Of course there will be telephone service, and in fact you won't even notice a change.One of the best things about our economic system is that we have a very efficient mechanism to purge stranded capital without ruining the businesses themselves... it's called chapter 11. If an airline in Chapter 11 can still operate planes and get you safely from one airport to another, a telco operating in Chapter 11 can complete a telephone call. Just look at Worldcom. But of course, failing telcos will howl for government support, claiming that the sky is falling. We musn't give in to their pleas. Their businesses will emerge from chapter with a much lower capitalization and lower cost base, and will be able to charge lower prices.

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Career media professional Eric Olsen is honored to be the founder and publisher of Blogcritics.org, which, quite frankly, rules - as do his wife and four children.
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Why the Telecos Should Be Allowed to Fail
Published: October 22, 2002
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Section: Culture
Writer: Eric Olsen
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Comments

#1 — October 23, 2002 @ 07:42AM — Michael Savoy

It'll never happen. Makes too much sense and removes government control by eliminating regulatory bureaucracy.

Just look at the way Congress passed the Sonny Bono act and allowing the industry to invade people's privacy by infiltrating home computers.

#2 — October 25, 2002 @ 18:39PM — Jim M

Amen! (to the article)

I have to agree with the previous comment, though. Stuff that makes this much sense is doomed to fail in the current climate. Escalation is the undeniable trend in society. Attempting to unwind things to a simpler, more manageable state is anethma.

I sometimes wonder why any of us were cursed with with a trait as insideous as "common sense".

"Genius lies in simplicity" -Albert Einstein
(or)
K.I.S.S. -Keep It Simple, Stupid!

(a re-assigned telco engineer)

#3 — June 23, 2004 @ 03:43AM — Patrizia [URL]

Will VoIP be the future?

Undoubtely it will be.
But not because it means saving money on telephone calls, just because it is THE NEW WAY OF COMMUNICATION.

In the seventies a writer wouldn't have changed his type writer for a computer.
The first was much easier to use, didn't require power to work, you could carry and use it in the desert, didn't require a printer.
Computers were expensive, difficult and annoying using the programs, needed power to work and so on...

But the computer won. Now a day nobody uses type writers anymore, not even to write a letter.
As a matter of fact, few write a letter with ink and paper. Email is much better.

The same is VoIP.
It is true, the old telephone is available everywhere, doesn't need power, no software, you can easily send your voice from point A to point B.

But that is all you can do, and it is expensive too.
The Telecoms, when VoIp will be a real thread will just lower their prices and think they will get the market back.

But VoIp in spite of everything will be the winner.
Because a computer can give you what a telephone cannot.

You can send voice, but also pictures and movies.
You can have a real conference on a decent screen, you can show documents, you can send them and many other things.

It will take time, because some people are fast in embracing new technologies, some are slow, some are very slow.

But progress is something nobody can stop, not even the Big Monopolies.
It is time to throw the Telecoms' Monopolies in the dustbin of History.

Patrizia from a World on IP

patrizia@worldonip.com

http://www.worldonip.com


By the way:

The inventor of the telephone was Antonio Meucci,

Mr. Bell just managed to steal his invention in every possible way, even corrupting the Patent officers.
This isn't a nice story for the Americans, probably this is why nobody talks about it...

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