Stan Liebowitz interviewed in Salon:

Does MP3 file trading hurt the music industry?

It's a question that has caused heated debate ever since Napster exploded on the scene in 1999. And as sales of recorded music have declined over the past two years, it's a question that has taken on ever-greater importance — for the music business, Congress and music fans.

Up until recently, there has been little hard data to support anyone's claims that file trading is hurting — or helping — music sales. But at least one researcher, University of Texas (at Dallas) economist Stan Liebowitz, author of an upcoming book (set for publication Sept. 7) titled "Rethinking the Network Economy," is digging hard for quantitative answers.

In May, Liebowitz published a paper suggesting that the record industry would soon be seriously harmed by MP3s. But in June, by the time Salon caught up with him, he was questioning his own conclusions after having examined the numbers and finding little solid proof that file sharing was hurting CD sales.

Two months later, he's changed his mind again. Sort of. In an insightful, yet-to-be published paper that analyzes 30 years of record sales figures, Liebowitz argues that MP3s are in fact having a significant negative effect on the CD market. He acknowledges that new data could once again lead to new conclusions, but for now, Liebowitz says, "I've moved somewhat closer to the record company position."

Salon called Liebowitz at his home in Dallas to discuss his findings.....

UPDATE
Attorney Philip S. Corwin analyzes Liebowitz:

The Liebowitz study is based on economic analysis/projection, as opposed to the Jupiter and Forester studies, which were based upon consumer surveys (and which found that file-sharing was not a threat because it net/net promoted more sales than it displaced). He has now zigged back toward his original CATO study conclusion, which he had zagged away from. If you read the full interview and his latest paper (accessible by hyperlink through the Salon story) you will see that he still believes that there is no presently available evidence on which to base any firm conclusion that file-sharing is harming the record industry — his latest zig is simply that he again feels that it is more likely than not that such evidence will become clear in the next year or two. However, he specifically rejects the industry's contention that burning and file-sharing will "annihilate" it; he points out that RIAA consistently exaggerates the seals downturn by including declines in cassettes in singles, which, as his paper documents, were already heading
rapidly toward extinction pre-Napster; and he opposes criminalization of file-sharing activity.
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